{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50463379-9139-439f-9929-846eceda8652", "symbol": "DAPP", "name": "VanEck Crypto& Blockchain Innovators ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.225, "architecture_energy": 26.875, "architecture_maturity": 41.871, "architecture_confidence": 64.2, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.99, "rotation_up": 14.51, "upward_expansion": 15.7, "deceleration": 66.63, "rotation_down": 59.34, "downward_expansion": 40.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.222533, 10.546964, 10.864233, 10.57734 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.178, "trend_reference": 10.258833, "distance_from_trend": -0.007879, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.153054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.753818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218776, "excess_performance": 0.135893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218776, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.150914, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10446, "relative_activity": 0.580733, "balance": 4.150914, "dry_up": 0.537815, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093066, "annualized_volatility": 0.534437, "from_high_reference": -0.343355, "from_low_reference": 0.34434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.258833, "fair_value_reference": 8.153054, "structural_low": 7.926, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037095, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.378005, "worst_return": -0.308065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093037, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.039793, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.894839, "worst_return": -0.4924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.157877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.114698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.510058, "worst_return": -0.118098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275201, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.226759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", 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18196.9, "trend": 10.229433, "fair_value": 8.046119, "relative_strength": -18.527924, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.228093, "energy": 19.628001, "activity_lines": [ 10.528467, 11.053382, 10.936748, 10.564968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.768, "volume": 438, "typical_volume": 17664.15, "trend": 10.258233, "fair_value": 8.082638, "relative_strength": -7.889547, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.76903, "energy": 20.478191, "activity_lines": [ 10.4796, 10.944709, 10.960648, 10.599714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.01, "volume": 12715, "typical_volume": 17622.65, "trend": 10.276567, "fair_value": 8.116933, "relative_strength": -14.174621, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.114366, "energy": 17.875293, "activity_lines": [ 10.2894, 10.712836, 10.905748, 10.583699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.178, "volume": 10446, "typical_volume": 17987.6, "trend": 10.258833, "fair_value": 8.153054, "relative_strength": -13.753818, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.225447, "energy": 26.874788, "activity_lines": [ 10.222533, 10.546964, 10.864233, 10.57734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }