{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5046d877-77a9-4551-b2d3-bc56b9ada8da",
    "symbol": "HYS",
    "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST 0-5 YR HIGH YLD CORP BD IDX ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 27.145,
    "architecture_energy": 15.313,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.168,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.416,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.56,
        "rotation_up": 27.29,
        "upward_expansion": 46.32,
        "deceleration": 79.15,
        "rotation_down": 30.56,
        "downward_expansion": 26.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        92.391963,
        92.464556,
        92.495486,
        92.385177
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 92.83,
    "trend_reference": 92.296803,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.005777,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 84.908421,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093296,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.813883,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.005683,
    "excess_performance": -0.119942,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005777,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004104,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.093296,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017557,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.098139,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006359,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005683,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.215253,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 678403,
      "relative_activity": 1.083211,
      "balance": 1.215253,
      "dry_up": 0.863494,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.00656,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.036228,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005385,
      "from_low_reference": 0.043411
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 92.296803,
      "fair_value_reference": 84.908421,
      "structural_low": 90.671194,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.010266,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.024361,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.015026,
        "worst_return": -0.031348,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.014729,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.028751,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.021698,
        "worst_return": -0.020101,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.015323,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047064,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.001161,
        "worst_return": -0.031807,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.025617,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002999,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.079735,
        "worst_return": -0.028501,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2022-12-02",
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        "return": 0.011623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-04-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016615,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036876,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00816,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.073048,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006309,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 659101.95,
        "trend": 92.282975,
        "fair_value": 84.554873,
        "relative_strength": -7.302707,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 34.786531,
        "energy": 15.515231,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 91.873724,
        "volume": 493768,
        "typical_volume": 625965.65,
        "trend": 92.279894,
        "fair_value": 84.669732,
        "relative_strength": -7.164328,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.696228,
        "energy": 13.844794,
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          92.291436,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 92.171951,
        "volume": 376255,
        "typical_volume": 614516.2,
        "trend": 92.282879,
        "fair_value": 84.788219,
        "relative_strength": -7.593933,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.235111,
        "energy": 16.701724,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.208401,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 92.83,
        "volume": 678403,
        "typical_volume": 626289.15,
        "trend": 92.296803,
        "fair_value": 84.908421,
        "relative_strength": -9.813883,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.145231,
        "energy": 15.312924,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}