{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5046e326-f6ab-4eb3-a74e-8466389ca67f", "symbol": "DTCI", "name": "D.T.C. Industries Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.201, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.423, "architecture_energy": 14.519, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.712, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.65, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 26.96, "deceleration": 50.15, "rotation_down": 29.02, "downward_expansion": 53.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.54, 17.469091, 17.401945, 17.693487 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 18.264428, "distance_from_trend": -0.030903, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.940401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.960332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128324, "excess_performance": -0.320649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030903, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05976, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104529, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128324, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2200, "relative_activity": 1.99095, "balance": 2.5, "dry_up": 1.040724, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024772, "annualized_volatility": 0.23604, "from_high_reference": -0.401449, "from_low_reference": 0.08589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.264428, "fair_value_reference": 26.940401, "structural_low": 16.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.011429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.02733, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.175, "worst_return": -0.154167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02496, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004424, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.141667, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011201, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.271255, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1755.0, "trend": 18.623761, "fair_value": 27.407488, "relative_strength": -32.139619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.99121, "energy": 39.602391, "activity_lines": [ 17.446666, 17.376363, 17.531408, 18.018546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1745.0, "trend": 18.520285, "fair_value": 27.308474, "relative_strength": -31.443696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.706841, "energy": 67.631533, "activity_lines": [ 17.366666, 17.372727, 17.467122, 17.933142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.9, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1740.0, "trend": 18.416619, "fair_value": 27.210029, "relative_strength": -32.870661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.795077, "energy": 82.85511, "activity_lines": [ 17.166666, 17.299999, 17.380932, 17.828608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1780.0, "trend": 18.365904, "fair_value": 27.113578, "relative_strength": -28.959204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.691967, "energy": 42.965622, "activity_lines": [ 17.326667, 17.374545, 17.384333, 17.782374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.6, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 1190.0, "trend": 18.311857, "fair_value": 27.033718, "relative_strength": -27.68222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.998297, "energy": 27.281784, "activity_lines": [ 17.426667, 17.418182, 17.383109, 17.732961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 1105.0, "trend": 18.264428, "fair_value": 26.940401, "relative_strength": -25.960332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.423087, "energy": 14.518669, "activity_lines": [ 17.54, 17.469091, 17.401945, 17.693487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }