{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5047528b-2500-4e6c-b965-1502301a033f", "symbol": "LIB", "name": "Libertas 7, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.348, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.814, "architecture_energy": 36.09, "architecture_maturity": 37.399, "architecture_confidence": 81.229, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.58, "rotation_up": 22.2, "upward_expansion": 4.77, "deceleration": 59.39, "rotation_down": 48.75, "downward_expansion": 78.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.034667, 3.051636, 3.110802, 3.169549 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.03, "trend_reference": 3.242107, "distance_from_trend": -0.065423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.95226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.552048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.603336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158333, "excess_performance": -0.282764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.552048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.471667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75491, "relative_activity": 4.977926, "balance": 3.471667, "dry_up": 2.050491, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050878, "annualized_volatility": 0.230452, "from_high_reference": -0.38807, "from_low_reference": 0.120373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.242107, "fair_value_reference": 1.95226, "structural_low": 2.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.010136, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.061551, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.34058, "worst_return": -0.239436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.097223, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.140013, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.035897, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.207107, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.206971, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.740222, "worst_return": -0.41958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -16.791675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.084503, "energy": 74.57384, "activity_lines": [ 3.039333, 3.09224, 3.151991, 3.20957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.09, "volume": 6926, "typical_volume": 12963.55, "trend": 3.24844, "fair_value": 1.925897, "relative_strength": -17.533174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.992666, "energy": 71.080095, "activity_lines": [ 3.050667, 3.085758, 3.141785, 3.199327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.0, "volume": 6037, "typical_volume": 12156.35, "trend": 3.243107, "fair_value": 1.938982, "relative_strength": -20.370823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.882687, "energy": 62.63351, "activity_lines": [ 3.034, 3.065242, 3.124198, 3.183298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.03, "volume": 75491, "typical_volume": 15165.15, "trend": 3.242107, "fair_value": 1.95226, "relative_strength": -20.603336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.813717, "energy": 36.090285, "activity_lines": [ 3.034667, 3.051636, 3.110802, 3.169549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }