{ "ticker": { "uuid": "504b03cf-c57d-47d1-8890-93281bf01d9f", "symbol": "KPLT", "name": "Katapult Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.888, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.322, "architecture_energy": 5.321, "architecture_maturity": 23.872, "architecture_confidence": 56.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 77.11, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 21.81, "deceleration": 64.02, "rotation_down": 37.41, "downward_expansion": 30.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.7, 6.795455, 6.731952, 6.741559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.67, "trend_reference": 6.7245, "distance_from_trend": -0.008105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.390096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.561535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001502, "excess_performance": -0.185952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.628566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83996, "relative_activity": 1.209442, "balance": 1.628566, "dry_up": 0.713176, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12146, "annualized_volatility": 0.418159, "from_high_reference": -0.725965, "from_low_reference": 0.212683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.7245, "fair_value_reference": 10.390096, "structural_low": 5.6619, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.07508, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.100634, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.620126, "worst_return": -0.562941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.064583, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.273448, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.395678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.317397, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.494054, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.502568, "worst_return": -0.474576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.226027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.431111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024911, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.466548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20643, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123522, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.9, "volume": 63121, "typical_volume": 726685.7, "trend": 17.76725, "fair_value": 129.771426, "relative_strength": -39.798962, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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44.108724, "energy": 32.216884, "activity_lines": [ 7.061333, 6.743636, 6.772238, 6.750441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.88, "volume": 21453, "typical_volume": 82120.45, "trend": 6.7435, "fair_value": 10.608108, "relative_strength": -33.351661, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.69725, "energy": 35.674283, "activity_lines": [ 7.069333, 6.792909, 6.783333, 6.76028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 53189, "typical_volume": 79026.45, "trend": 6.744833, "fair_value": 10.529903, "relative_strength": -31.032471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.522985, "energy": 34.070299, "activity_lines": [ 7.043333, 6.841273, 6.791952, 6.769731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.38, "volume": 39483, "typical_volume": 69478.0, "trend": 6.741833, "fair_value": 10.460096, "relative_strength": -35.449237, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.963072, "energy": 12.421301, "activity_lines": [ 6.807333, 6.794545, 6.746857, 6.746194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.67, "volume": 83996, "typical_volume": 69450.2, "trend": 6.7245, "fair_value": 10.390096, "relative_strength": -34.561535, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.322473, "energy": 5.321023, "activity_lines": [ 6.7, 6.795455, 6.731952, 6.741559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }