{ "ticker": { "uuid": "504f02b5-46c0-4679-a8ff-33b36e57f7c1", "symbol": "AI", "name": "L'Air Liquide S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.886, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.391, "architecture_energy": 7.963, "architecture_maturity": 7.28, "architecture_confidence": 47.937, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.46, "rotation_up": 39.48, "upward_expansion": 52.82, "deceleration": 49.14, "rotation_down": 21.59, "downward_expansion": 26.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.533337, 173.55359, 174.169412, 173.633693 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 172.380005, "trend_reference": 171.347435, "distance_from_trend": 0.006026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 161.955672, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.777051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049699, "excess_performance": -0.003612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006026, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.23204, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3601234, "relative_activity": 1.047934, "balance": 1.23204, "dry_up": 1.071048, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041366, "annualized_volatility": 0.238375, "from_high_reference": -0.07411, "from_low_reference": 0.137005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 171.347435, "fair_value_reference": 161.955672, "structural_low": 159.225508, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002012, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.010198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.083749, "worst_return": -0.049608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047183, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.039258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13029, "worst_return": -0.093818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008645, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155642, "worst_return": -0.053958, 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"relative_strength": 0.169557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.926893, "energy": 13.655895, "activity_lines": [ 173.860003, 172.947763, 174.242151, 172.546714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 176.460007, "volume": 3230031, "typical_volume": 3684271.2, "trend": 169.607721, "fair_value": 161.290059, "relative_strength": 1.446927, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.826811, "energy": 27.121398, "activity_lines": [ 175.352004, 173.581193, 174.489607, 173.032471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 176.520004, "volume": 3907140, "typical_volume": 3590453.9, "trend": 170.269704, "fair_value": 161.519989, "relative_strength": 1.110132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.287844, "energy": 29.788177, "activity_lines": [ 176.320004, 174.1404, 174.733435, 173.478425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 171.080002, "volume": 3984264, "typical_volume": 3579714.65, "trend": 170.78364, "fair_value": 161.740824, "relative_strength": -3.411354, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.560114, "energy": 15.093333, "activity_lines": [ 174.65067, 173.644267, 174.398536, 173.530702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 172.380005, "volume": 3601234, "typical_volume": 3436509.6, "trend": 171.347435, "fair_value": 161.955672, "relative_strength": -4.777051, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.390888, "energy": 7.963301, "activity_lines": [ 173.533337, 173.55359, 174.169412, 173.633693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }