{ "ticker": { "uuid": "504f8c9a-fb67-4ce0-b6ca-f14d17184fb4", "symbol": "GRAND", "name": "Grande Asset Hotels and Property Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.552, "architecture_energy": 14.875, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.794, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.94, "rotation_up": 23.28, "upward_expansion": 13.82, "deceleration": 40.46, "rotation_down": 36.5, "downward_expansion": 61.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.022667, 0.022182, 0.023048, 0.02428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.026, "distance_from_trend": -0.230769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.080641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.751987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.717206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.525658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113636, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.751987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061511, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.457172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6764300, "relative_activity": 0.667635, "balance": 1.201192, "dry_up": 1.61181, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.576923, "annualized_volatility": 1.716563, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.026, "fair_value_reference": 0.080641, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.404762, "median_excess_return": -0.026428, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062253, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.215385, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.227117, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 28.430467, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.023455, 0.024524, 0.026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.02, "volume": 39694400, "typical_volume": 7069450.0, "trend": 0.027667, "fair_value": 0.085577, "relative_strength": -49.184508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.794418, "energy": 42.2171, "activity_lines": [ 0.020667, 0.022727, 0.023952, 0.025462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 26123400, "typical_volume": 8267705.0, "trend": 0.027333, "fair_value": 0.084231, "relative_strength": -48.878221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.19048, "energy": 41.103163, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.022, 0.023429, 0.024968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 28904200, "typical_volume": 9617025.0, "trend": 0.026667, "fair_value": 0.083013, "relative_strength": -48.158734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.789455, "energy": 31.482994, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.021455, 0.022952, 0.024495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 3529800, "typical_volume": 9793515.0, "trend": 0.026667, "fair_value": 0.081859, "relative_strength": -20.422968, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.462431, "energy": 10.09064, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.022727, 0.023476, 0.02471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 6764300, "typical_volume": 10131730.0, "trend": 0.026, "fair_value": 0.080641, "relative_strength": -45.717206, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.552307, "energy": 14.874641, "activity_lines": [ 0.022667, 0.022182, 0.023048, 0.02428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }