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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.735, "architecture_energy": 94.279, "architecture_maturity": 14.377, "architecture_confidence": 59.003, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.1, "rotation_up": 83.61, "upward_expansion": 97.31, "deceleration": 41.97, "rotation_down": 10.16, "downward_expansion": 21.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.166666, 23.068041, 22.87408, 22.779122 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.299999, "trend_reference": 22.627783, "distance_from_trend": 0.029708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.39552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142408, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.483275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044843, "excess_performance": -0.129404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044843, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005641, "annualized_volatility": 0.043167, "from_high_reference": -0.03719, "from_low_reference": 0.120192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.627783, "fair_value_reference": 20.39552, "structural_low": 22.286753, "invalidation": "A 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.025513, "energy": 29.604276, "activity_lines": [ 22.627266, 22.575568, 22.580911, 22.498551 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 22.38445, "fair_value": 20.262964, "relative_strength": -15.514859, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.464945, "energy": 69.121045, "activity_lines": [ 22.698966, 22.622231, 22.604084, 22.527511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 22.42445, "fair_value": 20.28479, "relative_strength": -16.042136, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.686153, "energy": 88.42443, "activity_lines": [ 22.849483, 22.717663, 22.653449, 22.573676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 22.46445, "fair_value": 20.306305, "relative_strength": -14.588226, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.602965, "energy": 91.931352, "activity_lines": [ 22.965333, 22.801863, 22.69948, 22.61726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 22.50445, "fair_value": 20.328132, "relative_strength": -12.589916, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.625938, "energy": 92.863241, "activity_lines": [ 23.04, 22.874832, 22.742653, 22.658263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 22.541117, "fair_value": 20.349959, "relative_strength": -13.442356, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.520692, "energy": 90.384423, "activity_lines": [ 23.08, 22.938345, 22.78297, 22.696685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 22.581117, "fair_value": 20.371786, "relative_strength": -13.028808, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.137878, "energy": 87.783332, "activity_lines": [ 23.1, 22.990627, 22.82043, 22.732742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.75, "trend": 22.627783, "fair_value": 20.39552, "relative_strength": -14.483275, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.734969, "energy": 94.279357, "activity_lines": [ 23.166666, 23.068041, 22.87408, 22.779122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }