{ "ticker": { "uuid": "505d0f43-7f3a-418e-9f40-c924ff06a893", "symbol": "WOLF", "name": "Wolftank Group AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.081, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.026, "architecture_energy": 82.892, "architecture_maturity": 17.173, "architecture_confidence": 77.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.12, "rotation_up": 8.03, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 78.2, "downward_expansion": 92.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.574667, 3.811273, 3.91581, 3.974667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.54, "trend_reference": 4.114667, "distance_from_trend": -0.139663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.665385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591478, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.578254, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.246809, "excess_performance": -0.421055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139663, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035134, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415783, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.327372, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4106, "relative_activity": 2.089248, "balance": 1.327372, "dry_up": 1.290515, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065189, "annualized_volatility": 0.41192, "from_high_reference": -0.528, "from_low_reference": 0.072727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.114667, "fair_value_reference": 8.665385, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.424242, "median_excess_return": 0.004376, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.375661, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.043961, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.098291, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.807229, "worst_return": -0.346667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015043, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.530612, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.214689, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.343612, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.204375, "worst_return": -0.226804, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.196721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079137, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.426667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005682, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.1, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 153.9, "trend": 12.454445, "fair_value": 11.301345, "relative_strength": -4.415571, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.247353, 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"close": 3.98, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 1638.05, "trend": 4.289333, "fair_value": 8.844594, "relative_strength": -35.508522, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.368297, "energy": 20.081436, "activity_lines": [ 4.126667, 4.170909, 4.068095, 4.125161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.52, "volume": 2099, "typical_volume": 1743.0, "trend": 4.233333, "fair_value": 8.784893, "relative_strength": -42.671271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.629069, "energy": 44.663767, "activity_lines": [ 3.914667, 4.053091, 4.018667, 4.075527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.3, "volume": 440, "typical_volume": 1765.0, "trend": 4.17, "fair_value": 8.72437, "relative_strength": -45.12047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.2321, "energy": 72.7869, "activity_lines": [ 3.674667, 3.904, 3.952952, 4.015312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.54, "volume": 4106, "typical_volume": 1965.3, "trend": 4.114667, "fair_value": 8.665385, "relative_strength": -41.578254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.026435, "energy": 82.892406, "activity_lines": [ 3.574667, 3.811273, 3.91581, 3.974667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }