{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50632a7a-256f-40d7-83db-673932ca81dc", "symbol": "SNDA", "name": "Sunda Energy Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.39, "architecture_energy": 40.066, "architecture_maturity": 66.001, "architecture_confidence": 71.801, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.77, "rotation_up": 26.46, "upward_expansion": 17.64, "deceleration": 63.35, "rotation_down": 44.76, "downward_expansion": 69.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013233, 0.013059, 0.015944, 0.019508 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0145, "trend_reference": 0.02325, "distance_from_trend": -0.376344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.052702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.724868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.704325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.42, "excess_performance": -0.471235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.376344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141538, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.724868, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.42, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7510521, "relative_activity": 0.580491, "balance": 0.314304, "dry_up": 0.996407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.339841, "annualized_volatility": 1.243838, "from_high_reference": -0.677778, "from_low_reference": 0.600442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02325, "fair_value_reference": 0.052702, "structural_low": 0.00906, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.030744, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.348837, "worst_return": -0.328125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080562, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.565217, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031173, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114845, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.670106, "activity_lines": [ 0.013983, 0.015605, 0.020896, 0.023409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.01075, "volume": 13550174, "typical_volume": 11099872.5, "trend": 0.024975, "fair_value": 0.054726, "relative_strength": -60.001029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.750984, "energy": 73.253459, "activity_lines": [ 0.012767, 0.014332, 0.019542, 0.022459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 11412375, "typical_volume": 11487296.55, "trend": 0.024458, "fair_value": 0.054229, "relative_strength": -60.550233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.768218, "energy": 78.028134, "activity_lines": [ 0.01175, 0.013345, 0.018283, 0.021525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01075, "volume": 12096771, "typical_volume": 11971325.85, "trend": 0.02395, "fair_value": 0.053811, "relative_strength": -59.479785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.050668, "energy": 75.927443, "activity_lines": [ 0.011167, 0.012586, 0.017146, 0.02064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0155, "volume": 20547271, "typical_volume": 12725795.9, "trend": 0.0236, "fair_value": 0.053282, "relative_strength": -41.528562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.075515, "energy": 51.376507, "activity_lines": [ 0.012483, 0.012886, 0.016558, 0.020095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0145, "volume": 7510521, "typical_volume": 12938216.95, "trend": 0.02325, "fair_value": 0.052702, "relative_strength": -44.704325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.389834, "energy": 40.065714, "activity_lines": [ 0.013233, 0.013059, 0.015944, 0.019508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }