{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5065b8d6-3d4f-4e5d-b294-bba782bcc233",
    "symbol": "VBC",
    "name": "Verbrec Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 94.547,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -8.111,
    "architecture_energy": 15.98,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.928,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.753,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 48.5,
        "rotation_up": 43.08,
        "upward_expansion": 36.74,
        "deceleration": 40.6,
        "rotation_down": 22.84,
        "downward_expansion": 45.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.191667,
        0.187636,
        0.18509,
        0.18899
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.185,
    "trend_reference": 0.195107,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.051802,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.1268,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458989,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 3.504852,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.021299,
    "excess_performance": -0.085004,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051802,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012356,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.458989,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106904,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035049,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.299939,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021299,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.150789,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 446806,
      "relative_activity": 1.278313,
      "balance": 1.150789,
      "dry_up": 2.492142,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.101871,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.673457,
      "from_high_reference": -0.284795,
      "from_low_reference": 1.181218
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.195107,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.1268,
      "structural_low": 0.145,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.034482,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.057816,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.119993,
        "worst_return": -0.325928,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.074065,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.09504,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.068964,
        "worst_return": -0.481486,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.231799,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.217419,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": -0.168289,
        "worst_return": -0.517245,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.206893,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.197994,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.026014,
        "worst_return": -0.353111,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.158506,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.199996,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.035714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.037036,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.068964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.142859,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.149997,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.834132,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.166458,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 74555.75,
        "trend": 0.11615,
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1403280,
        "typical_volume": 479207.6,
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        "fair_value": 0.12536,
        "relative_strength": 24.664264,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.02082,
        "energy": 20.38784,
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          0.191333,
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          0.184214,
          0.189868
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.21,
        "volume": 544684,
        "typical_volume": 424666.5,
        "trend": 0.196537,
        "fair_value": 0.125937,
        "relative_strength": 26.426541,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.038406,
        "energy": 36.489426,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.199667,
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          0.18621,
          0.190739
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.18,
        "volume": 1089522,
        "typical_volume": 446411.55,
        "trend": 0.195573,
        "fair_value": 0.126383,
        "relative_strength": 4.888871,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -11.059522,
        "energy": 22.532259,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.195,
          0.186545,
          0.185343,
          0.189672
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.185,
        "volume": 446806,
        "typical_volume": 349527.85,
        "trend": 0.195107,
        "fair_value": 0.1268,
        "relative_strength": 3.504852,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -8.110745,
        "energy": 15.979706,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.191667,
          0.187636,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}