{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5066ae36-ffa9-4db5-b46d-6dacb03a1fe8", "symbol": "002416", "name": "Shenzhen Aisidi Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.369, "architecture_energy": 50.793, "architecture_maturity": 71.414, "architecture_confidence": 86.269, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 28.03, "upward_expansion": 13.42, "deceleration": 60.75, "rotation_down": 48.92, "downward_expansion": 77.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.44, 9.457636, 10.276945, 10.89688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.59, "trend_reference": 11.619152, "distance_from_trend": -0.174639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.395515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.397239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217304, "excess_performance": -0.224704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051177, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90276678, "relative_activity": 0.822356, "balance": 0.42341, "dry_up": 1.121895, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092891, "annualized_volatility": 0.423466, "from_high_reference": -0.309068, "from_low_reference": 0.13357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.619152, "fair_value_reference": 10.395515, "structural_low": 8.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006757, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.026258, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.118343, "worst_return": -0.055147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058006, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.101484, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.754967, "worst_return": -0.15368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114037, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.164353, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.697051, "worst_return": -0.13513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.716918, "energy": 91.350366, "activity_lines": [ 9.356667, 10.015571, 11.057584, 11.520789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.1, "volume": 172535007, "typical_volume": 115171283.65, "trend": 11.846295, "fair_value": 10.341533, "relative_strength": -23.161961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.790235, "energy": 87.298048, "activity_lines": [ 9.136, 9.730911, 10.805925, 11.33897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.85, "volume": 113425959, "typical_volume": 112970880.35, "trend": 11.755213, "fair_value": 10.356182, "relative_strength": -24.91594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.395491, "energy": 87.450562, "activity_lines": [ 8.965333, 9.47813, 10.552397, 11.145661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.01, "volume": 116400349, "typical_volume": 110434185.4, "trend": 11.700883, "fair_value": 10.376969, "relative_strength": -13.247001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.784741, "energy": 61.193494, "activity_lines": [ 9.304, 9.492727, 10.427782, 11.033066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.59, "volume": 90276678, "typical_volume": 109778090.2, "trend": 11.619152, "fair_value": 10.395515, "relative_strength": -20.397239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.369078, "energy": 50.792652, "activity_lines": [ 9.44, 9.457636, 10.276945, 10.89688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }