{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50731efd-0c9a-451d-8506-95bc38ea6fbe", "symbol": "WKL", "name": "Wolters Kluwer N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.622, "architecture_energy": 41.026, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.755, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.24, "rotation_up": 65.47, "upward_expansion": 35.42, "deceleration": 35.29, "rotation_down": 16.75, "downward_expansion": 24.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.328, 63.401455, 62.429651, 62.879624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 70.5, "trend_reference": 64.744143, "distance_from_trend": 0.088902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 118.319277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.643494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079833, "excess_performance": -0.094413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.073406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191, "relative_activity": 0.523001, "balance": 1.073406, "dry_up": 0.492196, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057763, "annualized_volatility": 0.371097, "from_high_reference": -0.387503, "from_low_reference": 0.270728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.744143, "fair_value_reference": 118.319277, "structural_low": 55.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004559, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.057251, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.15174, "worst_return": -0.262926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023639, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.227785, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.17476, "worst_return": -0.29813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.225129, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.480904, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.241042, "worst_return": -0.417618, "sufficient": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155425, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": 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59.629728, 61.150568, 63.104904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.400002, "volume": 352, "typical_volume": 448.6, "trend": 66.77143, "fair_value": 119.079711, "relative_strength": -39.868902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.475505, "energy": 37.986989, "activity_lines": [ 59.686668, 59.903947, 61.048388, 62.702094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.360001, "volume": 176, "typical_volume": 398.7, "trend": 65.950147, "fair_value": 118.797675, "relative_strength": -38.407284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.220532, "energy": 21.510518, "activity_lines": [ 60.782668, 60.324183, 61.060512, 62.417486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.959999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 361.25, "trend": 65.346713, "fair_value": 118.547332, "relative_strength": -31.340803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.182592, "energy": 18.085698, "activity_lines": [ 63.490667, 61.698546, 61.629563, 62.547153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.5, "volume": 191, "typical_volume": 365.2, "trend": 64.744143, "fair_value": 118.319277, "relative_strength": -29.643494, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.622439, "energy": 41.025798, "activity_lines": [ 66.328, 63.401455, 62.429651, 62.879624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }