{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5077c227-9c8a-4b1b-97f2-19c31087dca8", "symbol": "603322", "name": "Super Telecom Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.759, "architecture_energy": 60.233, "architecture_maturity": 61.545, "architecture_confidence": 86.831, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.02, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 12.05, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 61.71, "downward_expansion": 83.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.092667, 26.923818, 29.167381, 30.602559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.27, "trend_reference": 32.828333, "distance_from_trend": -0.169315, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.287949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.379551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268116, "excess_performance": -0.224912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.517789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26155496, "relative_activity": 0.808227, "balance": 1.517789, "dry_up": 1.025838, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14355, "annualized_volatility": 0.677772, "from_high_reference": -0.5455, "from_low_reference": 0.19135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.828333, "fair_value_reference": 35.287949, "structural_low": 22.889999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.031832, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.023477, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.927145, "worst_return": -0.19429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052233, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038361, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.296788, "worst_return": -0.176051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.126319, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.057984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.133745, "worst_return": -0.018168, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 35.362949, "relative_strength": -22.087297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.140398, "energy": 41.1958, "activity_lines": [ 29.132667, 29.993637, 31.530762, 32.812108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.790001, "volume": 42381431, "typical_volume": 32047032.6, "trend": 34.162333, "fair_value": 35.334167, "relative_strength": -33.442541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.908876, "energy": 51.635885, "activity_lines": [ 27.818667, 28.793637, 30.791238, 32.146129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 36186302, "typical_volume": 32659865.55, "trend": 33.635, "fair_value": 35.296218, "relative_strength": -33.728155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.638036, "energy": 49.151262, "activity_lines": [ 26.722667, 27.806909, 30.114762, 31.542108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.0, "volume": 28067635, "typical_volume": 32752195.55, "trend": 33.198, "fair_value": 35.2825, "relative_strength": -32.955451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.923669, "energy": 53.270785, "activity_lines": [ 26.02, 27.055637, 29.508095, 30.985011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.27, "volume": 26155496, "typical_volume": 32361569.95, "trend": 32.828333, "fair_value": 35.287949, "relative_strength": -28.379551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.759458, "energy": 60.233076, "activity_lines": [ 26.092667, 26.923818, 29.167381, 30.602559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }