{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5079aee9-157d-4e1b-9690-c5e5f93b22bd", "symbol": "UBIS", "name": "Ubis (Asia) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 92.844, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.204, "architecture_energy": 32.042, "architecture_maturity": 58.552, "architecture_confidence": 64.459, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 44.83, "upward_expansion": 72.6, "deceleration": 67.26, "rotation_down": 24.32, "downward_expansion": 8.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.352667, 1.349818, 1.281333, 1.219742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.31, "trend_reference": 1.133667, "distance_from_trend": 0.155542, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.512179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133701, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.482697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.47191, "excess_performance": 0.279585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155542, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133701, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225551, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034827, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.47191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.991678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 369500, "relative_activity": 0.234628, "balance": 8.991678, "dry_up": 0.352481, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1468, "annualized_volatility": 0.833858, "from_high_reference": -0.255682, "from_low_reference": 0.679487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.133667, "fair_value_reference": 1.512179, "structural_low": 0.88, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03003, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.877551, "worst_return": -0.427536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009756, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.039162, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.737589, "worst_return": -0.641174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.01855, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017682, "worst_return": -0.019417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"close": 1.4, "volume": 314800, "typical_volume": 1782130.0, "trend": 1.11, "fair_value": 1.520769, "relative_strength": 8.246115, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.710327, "energy": 48.737601, "activity_lines": [ 1.382667, 1.342, 1.255619, 1.192323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 157700, "typical_volume": 1773555.0, "trend": 1.125, "fair_value": 1.516474, "relative_strength": 5.681722, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.829366, "energy": 39.39058, "activity_lines": [ 1.374667, 1.350909, 1.271238, 1.207806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.31, "volume": 369500, "typical_volume": 1574835.0, "trend": 1.133667, "fair_value": 1.512179, "relative_strength": 3.482697, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.204336, "energy": 32.042087, "activity_lines": [ 1.352667, 1.349818, 1.281333, 1.219742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }