{ "ticker": { "uuid": "507ad525-0003-4d52-a07c-3da5b986a1bc", "symbol": "QAT", "name": "ISHARES MSCI QATAR ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.351, "architecture_energy": 56.483, "architecture_maturity": 10.344, "architecture_confidence": 92.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 12.95, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 39.79, "rotation_down": 66.13, "downward_expansion": 87.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.609653, 17.754124, 17.966483, 18.088327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.78, "trend_reference": 18.316729, "distance_from_trend": -0.029303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.922851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.825537, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.078267, "excess_performance": -0.265721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007406, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158255, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004762, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.114895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81793, "relative_activity": 0.356722, "balance": 0.114895, "dry_up": 0.790567, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029945, "annualized_volatility": 0.149625, "from_high_reference": -0.098733, "from_low_reference": 0.023015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.316729, "fair_value_reference": 16.922851, "structural_low": 17.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032287, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.012044, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.101604, "worst_return": -0.094091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036314, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.1227, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.133568, "worst_return": -0.088936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058323, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.115495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174031, "worst_return": -0.124799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-62.687058, "energy": 57.080492, "activity_lines": [ 17.86646, 17.999474, 18.124614, 18.245389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.53, "volume": 375524, "typical_volume": 251558.45, "trend": 18.376055, "fair_value": 16.906654, "relative_strength": -13.300844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.795739, "energy": 63.581412, "activity_lines": [ 17.70912, 17.901239, 18.065608, 18.189257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.38, "volume": 159260, "typical_volume": 243194.95, "trend": 18.348351, "fair_value": 16.912655, "relative_strength": -14.020202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.388691, "energy": 69.479161, "activity_lines": [ 17.570387, 17.785565, 17.995215, 18.124995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.78, "volume": 81793, "typical_volume": 229290.85, "trend": 18.316729, "fair_value": 16.922851, "relative_strength": -15.825537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.351263, "energy": 56.482985, "activity_lines": [ 17.609653, 17.754124, 17.966483, 18.088327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }