{ "ticker": { "uuid": "507be0f2-77e3-4f3a-b0ec-6524252fe241", "symbol": "XEM", "name": "iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.581, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.725, "architecture_energy": 23.942, "architecture_maturity": 65.174, "architecture_confidence": 86.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.44, "rotation_up": 18.13, "upward_expansion": 52.08, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 35.92, "downward_expansion": 18.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.822667, 50.740575, 50.53172, 49.326985 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 50.330002, "trend_reference": 47.834422, "distance_from_trend": 0.052171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.753453, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.358359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113249, "excess_performance": -0.007172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003584, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.65432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 254900, "relative_activity": 1.462086, "balance": 1.65432, "dry_up": 1.466388, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049709, "annualized_volatility": 0.274597, "from_high_reference": -0.087228, "from_low_reference": 0.357851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.834422, "fair_value_reference": 35.753453, "structural_low": 41.790001, "invalidation": "A 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70.190684, "activity_lines": [ 52.862776, 51.966508, 49.800117, 48.380556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.139999, "volume": 301100, "typical_volume": 148075.0, "trend": 46.845249, "fair_value": 35.209352, "relative_strength": 7.44458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.416464, "energy": 59.581796, "activity_lines": [ 52.78557, 52.14759, 50.191819, 48.74686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.880001, "volume": 267600, "typical_volume": 158940.0, "trend": 47.111646, "fair_value": 35.344219, "relative_strength": 0.785607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.434104, "energy": 33.483624, "activity_lines": [ 51.438683, 51.657067, 50.248616, 48.878135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.169998, "volume": 188200, "typical_volume": 155540.0, "trend": 47.384089, "fair_value": 35.473507, "relative_strength": 1.018509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.440699, "energy": 22.110667, "activity_lines": [ 50.401333, 51.256327, 50.324079, 49.010932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.57, "volume": 311900, "typical_volume": 165050.0, "trend": 47.617089, "fair_value": 35.609109, "relative_strength": 2.155679, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.663861, "energy": 23.416659, "activity_lines": [ 49.887333, 50.925885, 50.407638, 49.151958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.330002, "volume": 254900, "typical_volume": 174340.0, "trend": 47.834422, "fair_value": 35.753453, "relative_strength": 0.358359, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.724834, "energy": 23.942329, "activity_lines": [ 49.822667, 50.740575, 50.53172, 49.326985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }