{ "ticker": { "uuid": "507ce4cc-8f5f-4478-abc9-cb6dbf45cc7c", "symbol": "SPE", "name": "Special Opportunities Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.887, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.983, "architecture_energy": 29.827, "architecture_maturity": 27.607, "architecture_confidence": 85.691, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.22, "rotation_up": 21.17, "upward_expansion": 3.19, "deceleration": 56.94, "rotation_down": 44.4, "downward_expansion": 74.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.320063, 13.33319, 13.472158, 13.548545 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.505, "trend_reference": 13.702433, "distance_from_trend": -0.014409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.786461, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.28078, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049085, "excess_performance": -0.17471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102577, "relative_activity": 0.564103, "balance": 0.461735, "dry_up": 0.919944, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028932, "annualized_volatility": 0.123733, "from_high_reference": -0.065973, "from_low_reference": 0.042114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.702433, "fair_value_reference": 11.786461, "structural_low": 12.959239, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003215, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001417, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097687, "worst_return": -0.086235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033419, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.065918, "worst_return": -0.096801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069955, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.007462, "worst_return": -0.118937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -11.204636, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.923026, "energy": 38.695774, "activity_lines": [ 13.309541, 13.369329, 13.512627, 13.602506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.13, "volume": 138359, "typical_volume": 191467.9, "trend": 13.722538, "fair_value": 11.753613, "relative_strength": -12.043911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.78206, "energy": 40.645164, "activity_lines": [ 13.250835, 13.312349, 13.473901, 13.56258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.505, "volume": 102577, "typical_volume": 181841.0, "trend": 13.702433, "fair_value": 11.786461, "relative_strength": -12.28078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.983306, "energy": 29.82677, "activity_lines": [ 13.320063, 13.33319, 13.472158, 13.548545 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }