{ "ticker": { "uuid": "507fd6de-b9f9-4400-bfe1-2662359a41e7", "symbol": "RNRG", "name": "Global X Renewable Energy Producers UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.437, "architecture_energy": 60.245, "architecture_maturity": 9.501, "architecture_confidence": 73.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.1, "rotation_up": 16.94, "upward_expansion": 20.41, "deceleration": 45.8, "rotation_down": 71.89, "downward_expansion": 62.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.050267, 11.226545, 11.523905, 11.539875 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.968, "trend_reference": 11.47, "distance_from_trend": -0.043766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.620923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.261597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002559, "excess_performance": -0.168332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183308, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2219, "relative_activity": 1.718091, "balance": 0.708105, "dry_up": 1.305408, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031055, "annualized_volatility": 0.167852, "from_high_reference": -0.118895, "from_low_reference": 0.249915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.47, "fair_value_reference": 9.620923, "structural_low": 10.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.010549, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010549, "worst_return": -0.010549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.039935, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072435, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039935, "worst_return": 0.039935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016362, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.003731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016362, "worst_return": 0.016362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050542, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011201, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044506, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.045151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.298878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036373, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.164, "volume": 965, "typical_volume": 1635.1, "trend": 11.3226, "fair_value": 12.786607, "relative_strength": -24.766007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.382557, "energy": 25.091564, "activity_lines": [ 11.6184, 11.807345, 11.802267, 11.636611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.052, "volume": 862, "typical_volume": 1151.35, "trend": 11.3596, "fair_value": 9.61459, "relative_strength": -9.903381, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -25.238212, "energy": 38.565472, "activity_lines": [ 11.398267, 11.651636, 11.741048, 11.618912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.31, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 1152.55, "trend": 11.400733, "fair_value": 9.615474, "relative_strength": -6.492572, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.689704, "energy": 47.376312, "activity_lines": [ 11.3376, 11.561745, 11.706267, 11.615712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.382, "volume": 199, "typical_volume": 1097.8, "trend": 11.442933, "fair_value": 9.617577, "relative_strength": -5.775898, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.203343, "energy": 51.373817, "activity_lines": [ 11.332533, 11.497709, 11.678124, 11.614503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.774, "volume": 4252, "typical_volume": 1195.75, "trend": 11.4558, "fair_value": 9.618231, "relative_strength": -11.314172, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.772861, "energy": 66.862157, "activity_lines": [ 11.13, 11.332582, 11.59081, 11.571346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.968, "volume": 2219, "typical_volume": 1291.55, "trend": 11.47, "fair_value": 9.620923, "relative_strength": -12.261597, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.436915, "energy": 60.244772, "activity_lines": [ 11.050267, 11.226545, 11.523905, 11.539875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }