{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50847005-e9bf-41e4-b88d-d60b07e5bc5e", "symbol": "SYK", "name": "Stryker Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.565, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.518, "architecture_energy": 13.883, "architecture_maturity": 11.466, "architecture_confidence": 50.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.31, "rotation_up": 38.94, "upward_expansion": 37.9, "deceleration": 31.71, "rotation_down": 18.49, "downward_expansion": 41.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 287.186662, 285.03826, 279.057741, 281.865278 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 292.799988, "trend_reference": 287.924019, "distance_from_trend": 0.016935, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 307.204785, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.12978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031321, "excess_performance": -0.205568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15116, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.184932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216, "relative_activity": 6.215827, "balance": 1.184932, "dry_up": 3.690647, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049431, "annualized_volatility": 0.277086, "from_high_reference": -0.131081, "from_low_reference": 0.227277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 287.924019, "fair_value_reference": 307.204785, "structural_low": 238.576843, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.002398, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.018236, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.082575, "worst_return": -0.08784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025757, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000913, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.225746, "worst_return": -0.145312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14577, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.033695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229581, "worst_return": -0.067759, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", 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305.83995, "relative_strength": -29.31959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.417494, "energy": 45.473482, "activity_lines": [ 266.199778, 266.509846, 277.088453, 284.82303 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 269.682556, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.15, "trend": 292.379413, "fair_value": 305.870364, "relative_strength": -30.809866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.632435, "energy": 41.154618, "activity_lines": [ 267.362919, 266.368394, 275.408676, 283.255053 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 290.320007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13.05, "trend": 291.43735, "fair_value": 305.996689, "relative_strength": -23.359288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.980313, "energy": 17.737514, "activity_lines": [ 274.986481, 270.337705, 275.868999, 283.122189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 286.5, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 14.55, "trend": 290.566756, "fair_value": 306.165748, "relative_strength": -25.434547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.895961, "energy": 21.678785, "activity_lines": [ 280.153625, 273.635742, 276.022405, 282.80365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 288.700012, "volume": 83, "typical_volume": 18.7, "trend": 290.163787, "fair_value": 306.32837, "relative_strength": -23.192582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.671204, "energy": 20.740422, "activity_lines": [ 284.454394, 277.177417, 276.515487, 282.683215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 281.399994, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 21.85, "trend": 289.461159, "fair_value": 306.473451, "relative_strength": -22.960439, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.399091, "energy": 21.509155, "activity_lines": [ 284.774839, 279.047857, 276.457215, 282.117809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 289.700012, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 17.7, "trend": 289.124658, "fair_value": 306.740203, "relative_strength": -21.038044, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.720665, "energy": 19.502049, "activity_lines": [ 286.901339, 281.7648, 277.405097, 282.133219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 280.799988, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 25.5, "trend": 288.6284, "fair_value": 306.929987, "relative_strength": -22.714294, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.672595, "energy": 12.803198, "activity_lines": [ 284.726666, 282.385404, 277.62122, 281.596143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 292.799988, "volume": 216, "typical_volume": 34.75, "trend": 287.924019, "fair_value": 307.204785, "relative_strength": -21.12978, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.51753, "energy": 13.883311, "activity_lines": [ 287.186662, 285.03826, 279.057741, 281.865278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }