{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50879222-7528-4eed-a481-ab2c1f2c474b", "symbol": "RCSL4", "name": "Recrusul S/A", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.57, "architecture_energy": 29.201, "architecture_maturity": 99.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.975, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.63, "rotation_up": 32.63, "upward_expansion": 24.43, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 30.23, "downward_expansion": 63.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.577333, 0.536727, 0.538048, 0.668849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.51, "trend_reference": 0.938833, "distance_from_trend": -0.456773, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.628333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.986331, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.76196, "excess_performance": -0.704912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.456773, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.76196, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.679609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34690500, "relative_activity": 1.882401, "balance": 1.679609, "dry_up": 1.591754, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199095, "annualized_volatility": 1.006781, "from_high_reference": -0.81605, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.938833, "fair_value_reference": 0.628333, "structural_low": 0.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.039604, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.046404, "regime_survival": 0.918919, "best_return": 0.886598, "worst_return": -0.425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.206897, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.23437, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.794118, "worst_return": -0.49, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.204569, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.232738, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.467532, "worst_return": -0.509804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.471477, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.526796, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 6.987013, "worst_return": -0.651724, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018987, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.451852, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.753247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275, 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0.43, "volume": 18865500, "typical_volume": 25959330.0, "trend": 1.087833, "fair_value": 0.664103, "relative_strength": -49.876665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.608517, "energy": 83.46948, "activity_lines": [ 0.455333, 0.473091, 0.57125, 0.789038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.51, "volume": 20290400, "typical_volume": 21362910.0, "trend": 1.06525, "fair_value": 0.656346, "relative_strength": -39.359961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.820649, "energy": 62.881981, "activity_lines": [ 0.471333, 0.477636, 0.550857, 0.751758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.58, "volume": 34298400, "typical_volume": 19916675.0, "trend": 1.038167, "fair_value": 0.648846, "relative_strength": -31.513083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.381687, "energy": 55.022728, "activity_lines": [ 0.508, 0.495091, 0.541667, 0.720452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 28057500, "typical_volume": 18581685.0, "trend": 1.001667, "fair_value": 0.636154, "relative_strength": -16.417186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.317366, "energy": 29.20464, "activity_lines": [ 0.587333, 0.537818, 0.549095, 0.70057 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.51, "volume": 34690500, "typical_volume": 18428855.0, "trend": 0.938833, "fair_value": 0.628333, "relative_strength": -39.986331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.569863, "energy": 29.201495, "activity_lines": [ 0.577333, 0.536727, 0.538048, 0.668849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }