{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5087c819-5594-476c-9ceb-00b01f6adf82", "symbol": "CPL", "name": "CPL Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.971, "architecture_energy": 27.152, "architecture_maturity": 35.174, "architecture_confidence": 64.818, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.96, "rotation_up": 42.08, "upward_expansion": 74.47, "deceleration": 56.99, "rotation_down": 20.63, "downward_expansion": 3.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.684667, 0.681818, 0.677429, 0.670731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.69, "trend_reference": 0.663667, "distance_from_trend": 0.039679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.09359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36905, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.992516, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078125, "excess_performance": -0.1142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.120059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 619700, "relative_activity": 0.25673, "balance": 1.120059, "dry_up": 0.39423, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060201, "annualized_volatility": 0.30744, "from_high_reference": -0.439024, "from_low_reference": 0.169492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.663667, "fair_value_reference": 1.09359, "structural_low": 0.59, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.003597, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.022323, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.264865, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026127, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055813, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.107914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008693, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001864, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.550562, "worst_return": -0.084859, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.425, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.271227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.418983, "worst_return": -0.453237, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.319444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.234694, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028169, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.12, "volume": 4657500, "typical_volume": 5496980.0, "trend": 2.382667, "fair_value": 2.107002, "relative_strength": -12.183014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.777398, "energy": 42.981192, "activity_lines": [ 2.066667, 2.097091, 2.18019, 2.253032 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.24, "volume": 13246000, "typical_volume": 5987950.0, "trend": 2.352667, "fair_value": 2.114929, "relative_strength": -8.946183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.159507, "energy": 28.062979, "activity_lines": [ 2.122667, 2.117818, 2.17981, 2.243828 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.2, "volume": 9646900, "typical_volume": 6434175.0, "trend": 2.323333, "fair_value": 2.119782, "relative_strength": -9.946695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.578163, "energy": 20.421324, "activity_lines": [ 2.156, 2.130909, 2.176857, 2.233978 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.2, "volume": 3630700, "typical_volume": 6474910.0, 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"trend": 0.662333, "fair_value": 1.119808, "relative_strength": -22.67516, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.010279, "energy": 27.284294, "activity_lines": [ 0.684667, 0.677818, 0.671667, 0.66671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.68, "volume": 880000, "typical_volume": 2399580.0, "trend": 0.662667, "fair_value": 1.110705, "relative_strength": -22.261489, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.615571, "energy": 32.358417, "activity_lines": [ 0.683333, 0.678727, 0.673524, 0.667849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.68, "volume": 464400, "typical_volume": 2393050.0, "trend": 0.662667, "fair_value": 1.101859, "relative_strength": -20.81951, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.338695, "energy": 32.465102, "activity_lines": [ 0.682667, 0.679273, 0.675143, 0.668968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.69, "volume": 619700, "typical_volume": 2413820.0, "trend": 0.663667, "fair_value": 1.09359, "relative_strength": -17.992516, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.970801, "energy": 27.151873, "activity_lines": [ 0.684667, 0.681818, 0.677429, 0.670731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }