{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5088a6bb-a0dd-4df4-bdc9-358cde2fad45", "symbol": "SES", "name": "Shanaya Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.36, "architecture_energy": 75.419, "architecture_maturity": 35.953, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.84, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 17.82, "deceleration": 37.59, "rotation_down": 60.24, "downward_expansion": 86.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0332, 0.034473, 0.037314, 0.039346 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.032, "trend_reference": 0.042633, "distance_from_trend": -0.249414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.050846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.37065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.775287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304348, "excess_performance": -0.459183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.37065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.437753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62600, "relative_activity": 0.272951, "balance": 0.369676, "dry_up": 0.068565, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117788, "annualized_volatility": 0.976116, "from_high_reference": -0.536232, "from_low_reference": 0.185185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.042633, "fair_value_reference": 0.050846, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031812, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.361111, "worst_return": -0.294872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.055088, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.091343, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.3125, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.120879, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.116398, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.9375, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.263736, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.390481, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.494444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209877, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.215385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.211538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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0.040071, 0.042114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.037, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 233160.0, "trend": 0.044867, "fair_value": 0.051218, "relative_strength": -36.435262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.045998, "energy": 50.647724, "activity_lines": [ 0.036533, 0.037182, 0.0396, 0.041574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.037, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 226200.0, "trend": 0.044267, "fair_value": 0.051115, "relative_strength": -36.221591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.986434, "energy": 37.326174, "activity_lines": [ 0.0368, 0.036745, 0.039186, 0.041067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 226215.0, "trend": 0.0434, "fair_value": 0.050962, "relative_strength": -49.337969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.780194, "energy": 67.486937, "activity_lines": [ 0.034333, 0.035127, 0.038062, 0.040082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.032, "volume": 62600, "typical_volume": 229345.0, "trend": 0.042633, "fair_value": 0.050846, "relative_strength": -43.775287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.360466, "energy": 75.419399, "activity_lines": [ 0.0332, 0.034473, 0.037314, 0.039346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }