{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5089e647-e4b0-44ea-bae3-f5d18437ea2e", "symbol": "6539", "name": "Matching Service Japan Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.619, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.551, "architecture_energy": 61.088, "architecture_maturity": 11.389, "architecture_confidence": 61.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 73.66, "upward_expansion": 60.79, "deceleration": 24.8, "rotation_down": 17.42, "downward_expansion": 19.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 998.333333, 988.309091, 969.871429, 968.653281 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1014.0, "trend_reference": 972.792812, "distance_from_trend": 0.04236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 956.158111, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060494, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.512935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020674, "excess_performance": -0.141061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122134, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020674, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.122421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 328000, "relative_activity": 1.56844, "balance": 2.122421, "dry_up": 1.231441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021165, "annualized_volatility": 0.114064, "from_high_reference": -0.013161, "from_low_reference": 0.117971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 972.792812, "fair_value_reference": 956.158111, "structural_low": 907.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014985, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014639, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.035748, "worst_return": -0.028868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050949, "worst_return": -0.043274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.094166, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139723, "worst_return": -0.078795, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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955.993392, "relative_strength": -17.378577, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.19504, "energy": 56.667035, "activity_lines": [ 989.4, 980.472727, 964.666667, 965.958723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1014.0, "volume": 328000, "typical_volume": 209125.0, "trend": 972.792812, "fair_value": 956.158111, "relative_strength": -12.512935, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.550569, "energy": 61.087633, "activity_lines": [ 998.333333, 988.309091, 969.871429, 968.653281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }