{ "ticker": { "uuid": "508cc96c-83b4-4b8d-93cd-8373905a0605", "symbol": "603982", "name": "Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.451, "architecture_energy": 61.598, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 26.29, "upward_expansion": 11.54, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 55.7, "downward_expansion": 84.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.616, 5.693455, 6.251524, 6.714065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 7.329333, "distance_from_trend": -0.197744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.54891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.815509, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304965, "excess_performance": -0.261761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118505, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080952, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304965, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.231728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23643050, "relative_activity": 0.872013, "balance": 0.231728, "dry_up": 1.063286, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088305, "annualized_volatility": 0.332625, "from_high_reference": -0.422397, "from_low_reference": 0.152941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.329333, "fair_value_reference": 9.54891, "structural_low": 5.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.044938, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.02341, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.251187, "worst_return": -0.20053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.105738, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.06869, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.462677, "worst_return": -0.241129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079304, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.118749, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.157692, "worst_return": -0.367742, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -30.500463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.627418, "energy": 85.809114, "activity_lines": [ 5.674667, 6.008182, 6.649333, 7.089183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.19, "volume": 36372332, "typical_volume": 27417024.7, "trend": 7.506333, "fair_value": 9.674808, "relative_strength": -34.601495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.266241, "energy": 71.086566, "activity_lines": [ 5.489333, 5.791818, 6.466381, 6.932688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 26548621, "typical_volume": 27252095.3, "trend": 7.412333, "fair_value": 9.608013, "relative_strength": -28.420527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.003692, "energy": 65.46371, "activity_lines": [ 5.516, 5.703818, 6.341905, 6.812925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 23643050, "typical_volume": 27113179.35, "trend": 7.329333, "fair_value": 9.54891, "relative_strength": -26.815509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.451479, "energy": 61.597652, "activity_lines": [ 5.616, 5.693455, 6.251524, 6.714065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }