{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "50914662-6930-4976-a244-50faf8143bae",
    "symbol": "CVG",
    "name": "Convergenze S.p.A. Societ\u00e0 Benefit",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -48.903,
    "architecture_energy": 44.491,
    "architecture_maturity": 97.039,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.876,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.29,
        "rotation_up": 26.44,
        "upward_expansion": 19.14,
        "deceleration": 66.95,
        "rotation_down": 41.01,
        "downward_expansion": 66.81
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.457333,
        1.455455,
        1.529619,
        1.583419
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 1.5,
    "trend_reference": 1.659,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.095841,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.710824,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123229,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -27.556385,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.162011,
    "excess_performance": -0.332903,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095841,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057208,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123229,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.098492,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.275564,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075157,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.162011,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.470309,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 13000,
      "relative_activity": 0.631835,
      "balance": 0.470309,
      "dry_up": 0.801944,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.053846,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.245849,
      "from_high_reference": -0.369748,
      "from_low_reference": 0.171875
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.659,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.710824,
      "structural_low": 1.28,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.027027,
        "positive_rate": 0.52381,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.47619,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03934,
        "regime_survival": 0.761905,
        "best_return": 0.171271,
        "worst_return": -0.181818,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.061453,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.077125,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.202247,
        "worst_return": -0.226087,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.056018,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.178412,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.296296,
        "worst_return": -0.122905,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.122176,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.410046,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.06839,
        "worst_return": -0.312742,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.130178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.069149,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.090909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.061729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011834,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.083333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016043,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010363,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.035176,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.048387,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": -0.080645,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "fair_value": 1.736778,
        "relative_strength": -17.853964,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.332238,
        "energy": 35.152376,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.701333,
          1.706182,
          1.748333,
          1.768473
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 1.71,
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        "typical_volume": 10475.0,
        "trend": 1.798333,
        "fair_value": 1.734823,
        "relative_strength": -17.858186,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.551476,
        "energy": 25.198759,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.707333,
          1.702727,
          1.74281,
          1.762108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 1.69,
        "volume": 26000,
        "typical_volume": 11275.0,
        "trend": 1.788,
        "fair_value": 1.732866,
        "relative_strength": -20.040718,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.882772,
        "energy": 22.70134,
        "activity_lines": [
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          1.735667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 3500,
        "typical_volume": 11000.0,
        "trend": 1.780333,
        "fair_value": 1.730031,
        "relative_strength": -19.329433,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 26.518436,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.699333,
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          1.729,
          1.748796
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 1.66,
        "volume": 3000,
        "typical_volume": 10525.0,
        "trend": 1.770333,
        "fair_value": 1.72763,
        "relative_strength": -20.917886,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.449873,
        "energy": 34.32706,
        "activity_lines": [
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          1.719619,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 1.65,
        "volume": 3000,
        "typical_volume": 9925.0,
        "trend": 1.759667,
        "fair_value": 1.726106,
        "relative_strength": -21.735208,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 43.393124,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 1.63,
        "volume": 1500,
        "typical_volume": 9750.0,
        "trend": 1.751667,
        "fair_value": 1.725457,
        "relative_strength": -21.97521,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.472229,
        "energy": 57.019507,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 1.65,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 9025.0,
        "trend": 1.746667,
        "fair_value": 1.724874,
        "relative_strength": -22.960871,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.737685,
        "energy": 55.866165,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 18275.0,
        "trend": 1.741667,
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        "relative_strength": -27.921872,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -75.093194,
        "energy": 67.026581,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.62,
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          1.706946
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 2500,
        "typical_volume": 17650.0,
        "trend": 1.729667,
        "fair_value": 1.721919,
        "relative_strength": -28.379495,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -84.994067,
        "energy": 82.271299,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.576,
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          1.65581,
          1.691355
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.34,
        "volume": 8500,
        "typical_volume": 17400.0,
        "trend": 1.715,
        "fair_value": 1.719035,
        "relative_strength": -37.166276,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -94.419278,
        "energy": 95.581982,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.489333,
          1.560727,
          1.62181,
          1.666215
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.35,
        "volume": 32500,
        "typical_volume": 18800.0,
        "trend": 1.701,
        "fair_value": 1.716528,
        "relative_strength": -35.770104,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -87.883893,
        "energy": 95.045516,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.426667,
          1.513636,
          1.591429,
          1.642667
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.41,
        "volume": 26000,
        "typical_volume": 19875.0,
        "trend": 1.688333,
        "fair_value": 1.714782,
        "relative_strength": -31.391803,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.760716,
        "energy": 87.589108,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.402667,
          1.484,
          1.56919,
          1.623892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.45,
        "volume": 15000,
        "typical_volume": 20275.0,
        "trend": 1.679333,
        "fair_value": 1.713293,
        "relative_strength": -28.78468,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.160763,
        "energy": 84.49338,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.408,
          1.466727,
          1.552714,
          1.608516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.46,
        "volume": 12000,
        "typical_volume": 20200.0,
        "trend": 1.669667,
        "fair_value": 1.711867,
        "relative_strength": -28.114647,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.194794,
        "energy": 59.978321,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.424667,
          1.455636,
          1.538667,
          1.594366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.5,
        "volume": 13000,
        "typical_volume": 20575.0,
        "trend": 1.659,
        "fair_value": 1.710824,
        "relative_strength": -27.556385,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.902946,
        "energy": 44.491475,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.457333,
          1.455455,
          1.529619,
          1.583419
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}