{ "ticker": { "uuid": "509f2f5a-7a70-4296-9c8c-a38d5dbd13b4", "symbol": "EVIM", "name": "MORGAN STANLEY ETF TRUST EATON VANCE INTERMEDIATE MUNICIPAL INCOM", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.922, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.098, "architecture_energy": 43.596, "architecture_maturity": 12.432, "architecture_confidence": 70.177, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.69, "rotation_up": 10.91, "upward_expansion": 6.13, "deceleration": 51.77, "rotation_down": 67.41, "downward_expansion": 74.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.494358, 52.692437, 52.717897, 52.72599 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.62, "trend_reference": 52.768814, "distance_from_trend": -0.00282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.128449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.367833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008054, "excess_performance": -0.133679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00282, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00402, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171304, "relative_activity": 1.148331, "balance": 0.60972, "dry_up": 1.078593, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006332, "annualized_volatility": 0.039963, "from_high_reference": -0.018633, "from_low_reference": 0.056022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.768814, "fair_value_reference": 50.128449, "structural_low": 51.869464, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012071, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007815, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.03092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008427, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 45.516849, "volume": 505, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 45.557822, "volume": 410, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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52.699653, 52.824072, 52.75687, 52.766029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.3, "volume": 185487, "typical_volume": 151120.35, "trend": 52.770444, "fair_value": 50.111384, "relative_strength": -8.042939, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.975336, "energy": 42.67233, "activity_lines": [ 52.518598, 52.728946, 52.721199, 52.735696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.62, "volume": 171304, "typical_volume": 149176.55, "trend": 52.768814, "fair_value": 50.128449, "relative_strength": -10.367833, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.097927, "energy": 43.596412, "activity_lines": [ 52.494358, 52.692437, 52.717897, 52.72599 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }