{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50a2561b-044c-4451-80c7-da17bf828627", "symbol": "FVAL", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST VALUE FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.423, "architecture_energy": 89.377, "architecture_maturity": 16.563, "architecture_confidence": 80.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.72, "rotation_up": 78.92, "upward_expansion": 97.95, "deceleration": 40.0, "rotation_down": 16.09, "downward_expansion": 19.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.95936, 79.895023, 78.702103, 77.074741 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 83.3481, "trend_reference": 75.289397, "distance_from_trend": 0.107036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.284678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.47756, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135571, "excess_performance": 0.009946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024776, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.273146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307483, "relative_activity": 1.54169, "balance": 1.273146, "dry_up": 1.41968, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021988, "annualized_volatility": 0.131008, "from_high_reference": -0.002297, "from_low_reference": 0.297815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.289397, "fair_value_reference": 61.284678, "structural_low": 66.945126, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.01251, "positive_rate": 0.560976, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": 0.001299, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.066807, "worst_return": -0.116607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.028442, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.004386, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.091257, "worst_return": -0.063294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.078057, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.01184, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.140431, "worst_return": -0.144108, "sufficient": true }, { 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76.533329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.3481, "volume": 307483, "typical_volume": 199445.35, "trend": 75.289397, "fair_value": 61.284678, "relative_strength": 2.47756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.422933, "energy": 89.376764, "activity_lines": [ 80.95936, 79.895023, 78.702103, 77.074741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }