{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50a26410-9056-42fd-88f2-882c7a84ad5e", "symbol": "RNK", "name": "The Rank Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.231, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.937, "architecture_energy": 14.161, "architecture_maturity": 39.097, "architecture_confidence": 49.364, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.22, "rotation_up": 34.65, "upward_expansion": 56.35, "deceleration": 60.47, "rotation_down": 27.88, "downward_expansion": 20.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.978933, 0.975873, 0.980681, 0.972155 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.028, "trend_reference": 0.958993, "distance_from_trend": 0.071958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.908139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.731325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.138291, "excess_performance": 0.087056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.212747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1996159, "relative_activity": 1.044359, "balance": 2.212747, "dry_up": 1.216882, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087356, "annualized_volatility": 0.403654, "from_high_reference": -0.306195, "from_low_reference": 0.201457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.958993, "fair_value_reference": 0.908139, "structural_low": 0.86, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.014655, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002349, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.472155, "worst_return": -0.136087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05547, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.081356, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.589421, "worst_return": -0.259091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.108572, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.159597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.697734, "worst_return": -0.447637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.218406, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222246, "worst_return": -0.505714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.234177, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", 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0.968, "volume": 1974897, "typical_volume": 1980631.05, "trend": 0.957533, "fair_value": 0.907226, "relative_strength": -16.655549, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.463563, "energy": 14.534177, "activity_lines": [ 0.951667, 0.966764, 0.9753, 0.967608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.028, "volume": 1996159, "typical_volume": 1911372.7, "trend": 0.958993, "fair_value": 0.908139, "relative_strength": -10.731325, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.937226, "energy": 14.160751, "activity_lines": [ 0.978933, 0.975873, 0.980681, 0.972155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }