{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50a3b7b7-007c-4f84-982e-5051b56f1e2a", "symbol": "AES", "name": "The AES Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.965, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.554, "architecture_energy": 37.924, "architecture_maturity": 2.56, "architecture_confidence": 66.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.1, "rotation_up": 63.5, "upward_expansion": 48.42, "deceleration": 22.82, "rotation_down": 21.91, "downward_expansion": 21.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.677187, 14.626194, 14.571232, 14.574264 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.73, "trend_reference": 14.627551, "distance_from_trend": 0.007004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.932382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.980581, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070935, "excess_performance": -0.19656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021531, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.92963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37579232, "relative_activity": 0.823033, "balance": 1.92963, "dry_up": 0.765364, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009547, "annualized_volatility": 0.294932, "from_high_reference": -0.155156, "from_low_reference": 0.239418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.627551, "fair_value_reference": 13.932382, "structural_low": 13.819721, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050812, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063515, "worst_return": -0.150332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.134277, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.12761, "worst_return": -0.140945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002392, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018351, "worst_return": -0.013568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023726, "active": 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-4.39387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.251259, "energy": 12.866157, "activity_lines": [ 14.54864, 14.577592, 14.486307, 14.554129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.664239, "volume": 29829748, "typical_volume": 49077493.0, "trend": 14.595341, "fair_value": 13.962715, "relative_strength": -3.284615, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.451068, "energy": 8.540951, "activity_lines": [ 14.58848, 14.591206, 14.515258, 14.560575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.68, "volume": 34356914, "typical_volume": 47855599.4, "trend": 14.602479, "fair_value": 13.946884, "relative_strength": -4.132847, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.891743, "energy": 26.208507, "activity_lines": [ 14.630625, 14.604155, 14.542442, 14.566036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.73, "volume": 37579232, "typical_volume": 45659422.95, "trend": 14.627551, "fair_value": 13.932382, "relative_strength": -6.980581, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.553834, "energy": 37.924107, "activity_lines": [ 14.677187, 14.626194, 14.571232, 14.574264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }