{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50a7c0bb-8505-4f45-8fe0-4ce5c5039ed6", "symbol": "002512", "name": "Tatwah Smartech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.167, "architecture_energy": 36.945, "architecture_maturity": 81.121, "architecture_confidence": 59.899, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 15.92, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 45.14, "downward_expansion": 65.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.619333, 3.608182, 3.86581, 4.084624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 4.575, "distance_from_trend": -0.154098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.584231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.929832, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.336192, "excess_performance": -0.343592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.336192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95116, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182532200, "relative_activity": 0.84404, "balance": 0.95116, "dry_up": 0.791945, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123832, "annualized_volatility": 0.577993, "from_high_reference": -0.538186, "from_low_reference": 0.329897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.575, "fair_value_reference": 4.584231, "structural_low": 2.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.044084, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028257, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.401596, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.092736, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.757692, "worst_return": -0.223958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.20049, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423077, "worst_return": 0.088328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.212113, "energy": 83.418216, "activity_lines": [ 3.579333, 3.885091, 4.06581, 4.402473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.54, "volume": 149053865, "typical_volume": 243409970.75, "trend": 4.844667, "fair_value": 4.594487, "relative_strength": -25.590742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.219942, "energy": 79.313984, "activity_lines": [ 3.532667, 3.777636, 3.999095, 4.311527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.15, "volume": 165760531, "typical_volume": 251594447.3, "trend": 4.748667, "fair_value": 4.589038, "relative_strength": -33.303593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.37715, "energy": 70.344379, "activity_lines": [ 3.391333, 3.616727, 3.907095, 4.202194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.71, "volume": 187717655, "typical_volume": 233734066.95, "trend": 4.653667, "fair_value": 4.585641, "relative_strength": -19.546897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.434286, "energy": 50.516287, "activity_lines": [ 3.491333, 3.588, 3.87681, 4.135183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.87, "volume": 182532200, "typical_volume": 216260151.7, "trend": 4.575, "fair_value": 4.584231, "relative_strength": -19.929832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.166705, "energy": 36.944737, "activity_lines": [ 3.619333, 3.608182, 3.86581, 4.084624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }