{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50a8e7b6-2742-404f-a69d-b53f2b512df5", "symbol": "FRCP", "name": "Franklin MSCI China Paris Align", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.305, "architecture_energy": 75.101, "architecture_maturity": 9.459, "architecture_confidence": 79.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.93, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 37.33, "rotation_down": 74.13, "downward_expansion": 90.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.517, 20.768455, 20.917076, 21.068234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.535, "trend_reference": 21.462933, "distance_from_trend": -0.043234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.750609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.971381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08424, "excess_performance": -0.137551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08424, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.384127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.384127, "dry_up": 2.197875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018999, "annualized_volatility": 0.196855, "from_high_reference": -0.193852, "from_low_reference": 0.002245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.462933, "fair_value_reference": 21.750609, "structural_low": 20.489, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002196, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 20.025999, "volume": 655, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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22.153133, "fair_value": 21.830975, "relative_strength": -8.566151, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.797134, "energy": 23.554144, "activity_lines": [ 21.419933, 21.324527, 21.195514, 21.534071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.454, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 252.5, "trend": 22.060833, "fair_value": 21.826378, "relative_strength": -9.800181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.452027, "energy": 18.795844, "activity_lines": [ 21.454, 21.375564, 21.206776, 21.488966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.49, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 273.5, "trend": 21.9364, "fair_value": 21.810277, "relative_strength": -12.006793, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.706487, "energy": 37.130131, "activity_lines": [ 21.132667, 21.234236, 21.130191, 21.387621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 273.5, "trend": 21.811966, "fair_value": 21.79456, "relative_strength": -11.904105, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.591811, "energy": 54.376906, "activity_lines": [ 20.8756, 21.093346, 21.062157, 21.294305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 273.5, "trend": 21.687533, "fair_value": 21.779212, "relative_strength": -12.151932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.804079, "energy": 70.470551, "activity_lines": [ 20.6828, 20.952891, 21.002676, 21.209017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.535, "volume": 1324, "typical_volume": 318.7, "trend": 21.5646, "fair_value": 21.764744, "relative_strength": -13.196383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.980622, "energy": 76.095396, "activity_lines": [ 20.569267, 20.856964, 20.956033, 21.13466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.535, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.6, "trend": 21.462933, "fair_value": 21.750609, "relative_strength": -14.971381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.304819, "energy": 75.10122, "activity_lines": [ 20.517, 20.768455, 20.917076, 21.068234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }