{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50ac5602-add9-41dc-bebc-b32927b0ba25", "symbol": "FFTY", "name": "CAPFORCE IBD 50 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 52.339, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.903, "architecture_energy": 31.959, "architecture_maturity": 9.574, "architecture_confidence": 64.953, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.02, "rotation_up": 14.24, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 63.31, "rotation_down": 65.75, "downward_expansion": 43.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.348, 38.690545, 39.206595, 38.711903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.67, "trend_reference": 38.190167, "distance_from_trend": -0.039805, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.17387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.106019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006588, "excess_performance": -0.119037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277029, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109365, "relative_activity": 0.529237, "balance": 0.277029, "dry_up": 0.578292, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070807, "annualized_volatility": 0.280319, "from_high_reference": -0.168103, "from_low_reference": 0.168679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.190167, "fair_value_reference": 30.17387, "structural_low": 31.61, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.027455, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.005125, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095929, "worst_return": -0.141075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.154998, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273644, "worst_return": 0.06621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042479, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17937, "worst_return": -0.092551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130839, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081713, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008651, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.036235, "volume": 458683, "typical_volume": 461697.8, "trend": 23.106654, "fair_value": 33.533552, "relative_strength": -12.913666, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.117056, "energy": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.41991, "energy": 15.346568, "activity_lines": [ 40.045333, 40.456, 39.632095, 38.931733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.31, "volume": 129343, "typical_volume": 241887.6, "trend": 38.1175, "fair_value": 30.002642, "relative_strength": -6.734112, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.891911, "energy": 14.790107, "activity_lines": [ 38.902, 39.867545, 39.524786, 38.882613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.99, "volume": 100649, "typical_volume": 220027.55, "trend": 38.1885, "fair_value": 30.085482, "relative_strength": -8.420169, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.674535, "energy": 25.66622, "activity_lines": [ 38.028667, 39.281273, 39.384381, 38.809871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.67, "volume": 109365, "typical_volume": 206646.55, "trend": 38.190167, "fair_value": 30.17387, "relative_strength": -12.106019, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.902818, "energy": 31.958719, "activity_lines": [ 37.348, 38.690545, 39.206595, 38.711903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }