{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50b06dc7-1d05-4df8-87f5-fe818ba6f67e", "symbol": "EMGEAS", "name": "UBS MSCI EM SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.713, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.686, "architecture_energy": 26.214, "architecture_maturity": 65.206, "architecture_confidence": 79.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.15, "rotation_up": 18.49, "upward_expansion": 53.22, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 35.79, "downward_expansion": 19.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.382, 74.562727, 74.177142, 72.403849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 73.82, "trend_reference": 70.133, "distance_from_trend": 0.052572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.037047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3661, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.889164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125477, "excess_performance": -0.045415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052572, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3661, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081119, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.040415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 637, "relative_activity": 0.435198, "balance": 1.040415, "dry_up": 0.943841, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037784, "annualized_volatility": 0.227814, "from_high_reference": -0.071797, "from_low_reference": 0.367037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.133, "fair_value_reference": 54.037047, "structural_low": 61.369999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054854, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062688, 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"close": 74.400002, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 1391.15, "trend": 69.445333, "fair_value": 53.666022, "relative_strength": 1.665918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.145488, "energy": 27.670599, "activity_lines": [ 74.555334, 75.452182, 73.935762, 71.963634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.239998, "volume": 4588, "typical_volume": 1615.3, "trend": 69.791333, "fair_value": 53.843906, "relative_strength": -2.052926, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.406865, "energy": 26.778088, "activity_lines": [ 73.524666, 74.860909, 74.000285, 72.143935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.82, "volume": 637, "typical_volume": 1463.7, "trend": 70.133, "fair_value": 54.037047, "relative_strength": -2.889164, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.686234, "energy": 26.214253, "activity_lines": [ 73.382, 74.562727, 74.177142, 72.403849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }