{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50b808a8-952d-4817-9c74-13ddfe46d1f1", "symbol": "VERX", "name": "Vertex", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.31, "architecture_energy": 17.406, "architecture_maturity": 39.673, "architecture_confidence": 78.464, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.3, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 14.18, "deceleration": 40.85, "rotation_down": 34.82, "downward_expansion": 59.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.328667, 12.277091, 12.489286, 12.702516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.94, "trend_reference": 13.471333, "distance_from_trend": -0.113673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.230609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.645534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.240941, "excess_performance": -0.428395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09152, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066436, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20017847, "relative_activity": 2.346275, "balance": 0.615233, "dry_up": 1.560482, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144361, "annualized_volatility": 0.668627, "from_high_reference": -0.551549, "from_low_reference": 0.169442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.471333, "fair_value_reference": 29.230609, "structural_low": 10.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014167, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.044078, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.382407, "worst_return": -0.339378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.061374, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.149938, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.323571, "worst_return": -0.458918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.233278, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.307712, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.35672, "worst_return": -0.564165, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099703, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.271871, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.234459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.650728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167041, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050132, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.62, "volume": 1203540, "typical_volume": 1564984.55, "trend": 19.134333, "fair_value": 19.260897, "relative_strength": 3.437861, "stage": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.724714, "energy": 24.693056, "activity_lines": [ 12.395333, 12.406364, 12.589095, 13.036968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.87, "volume": 11858588, "typical_volume": 7628277.75, "trend": 13.942, "fair_value": 29.316699, "relative_strength": -40.450322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.167802, "energy": 19.870884, "activity_lines": [ 12.317333, 12.280909, 12.509238, 12.88514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.91, "volume": 13554864, "typical_volume": 7896349.6, "trend": 13.738667, "fair_value": 29.276186, "relative_strength": -33.850323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.948967, "energy": 13.829, "activity_lines": [ 12.536, 12.362364, 12.544524, 12.818559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.94, "volume": 20017847, "typical_volume": 8531758.1, "trend": 13.471333, "fair_value": 29.230609, "relative_strength": -40.645534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.309548, "energy": 17.405922, "activity_lines": [ 12.328667, 12.277091, 12.489286, 12.702516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }