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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.189, "architecture_energy": 52.397, "architecture_maturity": 39.186, "architecture_confidence": 76.87, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 61.12, "upward_expansion": 80.88, "deceleration": 58.92, "rotation_down": 18.91, "downward_expansion": 7.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.290333, 115.469107, 113.060633, 110.922287 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 114.79, "trend_reference": 108.221147, "distance_from_trend": 0.060698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.306462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.284856, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110742, "excess_performance": -0.014883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004551, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110742, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.278634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2729352, "relative_activity": 1.684612, "balance": 1.278634, "dry_up": 1.193851, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033792, "annualized_volatility": 0.167945, "from_high_reference": -0.040618, "from_low_reference": 0.246458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.221147, "fair_value_reference": 94.306462, "structural_low": 99.05, 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"relative_strength": 0.567606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.183031, "energy": 63.392567, "activity_lines": [ 113.752528, 112.333305, 110.037514, 108.300437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 117.61, "volume": 1301056, "typical_volume": 1548682.45, "trend": 106.389926, "fair_value": 93.645391, "relative_strength": 5.418012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.912105, "energy": 79.586991, "activity_lines": [ 115.205267, 113.496376, 110.947018, 109.068564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.185, "volume": 2109792, "typical_volume": 1554403.55, "trend": 107.094167, "fair_value": 93.875064, "relative_strength": 7.330079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.531915, "energy": 84.442277, "activity_lines": [ 116.870333, 114.797629, 111.95833, 109.894052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 115.94, "volume": 1596751, "typical_volume": 1554380.75, "trend": 107.698192, "fair_value": 94.095604, "relative_strength": 3.21521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.859252, "energy": 65.081505, "activity_lines": [ 116.812667, 115.289703, 112.593591, 110.464751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.79, "volume": 2729352, "typical_volume": 1620166.3, "trend": 108.221147, "fair_value": 94.306462, "relative_strength": -1.284856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.189153, "energy": 52.397187, "activity_lines": [ 116.290333, 115.469107, 113.060633, 110.922287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }