{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50be6240-87b9-4e61-b89a-444330053810", "symbol": "6220", "name": "YFC-Boneagle Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.073, "architecture_energy": 77.375, "architecture_maturity": 18.164, "architecture_confidence": 77.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.24, "rotation_up": 8.12, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 79.28, "downward_expansion": 92.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.283333, 29.015379, 30.53804, 31.065554 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.65, "trend_reference": 31.168199, "distance_from_trend": -0.177046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.296771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.022345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128849, "excess_performance": -0.570221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128849, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1719530, "relative_activity": 0.558124, "balance": 1.051007, "dry_up": 0.515842, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140096, "annualized_volatility": 0.595825, "from_high_reference": -0.43703, "from_low_reference": 0.548999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.168199, "fair_value_reference": 24.296771, "structural_low": 23.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01771, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.04148, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132584, "worst_return": -0.105159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005758, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038202, "worst_return": -0.149402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069098, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.273858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132584, "worst_return": -0.25073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.155136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.547945, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 3502514.3, "trend": 31.122037, "fair_value": 24.263744, "relative_strength": -29.961048, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.832704, "energy": 44.218905, "activity_lines": [ 28.80707, 31.328991, 31.623477, 31.750066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0, "volume": 778098, "typical_volume": 3148958.4, "trend": 31.137887, "fair_value": 24.283582, "relative_strength": -26.846013, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.831687, "energy": 59.864542, "activity_lines": [ 27.346667, 30.141965, 31.081177, 31.419612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.65, "volume": 1719530, "typical_volume": 3080912.65, "trend": 31.168199, "fair_value": 24.296771, "relative_strength": -30.022345, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.072542, "energy": 77.375198, "activity_lines": [ 26.283333, 29.015379, 30.53804, 31.065554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }