{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50c04637-0d45-46f5-82db-5a1a4a72b0ae", "symbol": "IBTA", "name": "Ibotta, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 77.454, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.23, "architecture_energy": 20.086, "architecture_maturity": 56.51, "architecture_confidence": 93.082, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.39, "rotation_up": 32.51, "upward_expansion": 44.44, "deceleration": 78.02, "rotation_down": 31.08, "downward_expansion": 31.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.720667, 31.229818, 31.981143, 31.148882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.42, "trend_reference": 29.250667, "distance_from_trend": 0.313474, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.54157, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.596652, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.870497, "excess_performance": 0.744872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.313474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090117, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.225967, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.870497, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3271426, "relative_activity": 3.161797, "balance": 1.039245, "dry_up": 1.413229, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140271, "annualized_volatility": 0.872776, "from_high_reference": -0.051007, "from_low_reference": 1.011518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.250667, "fair_value_reference": 47.54157, "structural_low": 19.985, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.114203, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.091881, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.244977, "worst_return": -0.016571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.316496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.729264, "energy": 25.320927, "activity_lines": [ 32.750667, 32.703455, 32.57181, 30.752237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.55, "volume": 704153, "typical_volume": 1063251.5, "trend": 28.524333, "fair_value": 47.998814, "relative_strength": 2.081514, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.494603, "energy": 18.612329, "activity_lines": [ 32.435333, 32.474182, 32.597476, 30.968817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.25, "volume": 1110122, "typical_volume": 1018596.6, "trend": 28.659, "fair_value": 47.81605, "relative_strength": -13.442878, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.145411, "energy": 10.130502, "activity_lines": [ 30.342, 31.353091, 32.087048, 30.822086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.0, "volume": 763217, "typical_volume": 989592.75, "trend": 28.695667, "fair_value": 47.617583, "relative_strength": -20.816642, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.680387, "energy": 34.521491, "activity_lines": [ 27.796, 29.905818, 31.34881, 30.521505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.42, "volume": 3271426, "typical_volume": 1034673.0, "trend": 29.250667, "fair_value": 47.54157, "relative_strength": 22.596652, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.230022, "energy": 20.086413, "activity_lines": [ 30.720667, 31.229818, 31.981143, 31.148882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }