{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50c1cb7c-b2e5-45e4-9e96-81384f016cda", "symbol": "ARTI", "name": "Evolve Artificial Intelligence Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.702, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.143, "architecture_energy": 41.184, "architecture_maturity": 49.182, "architecture_confidence": 58.249, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.24, "rotation_up": 44.87, "upward_expansion": 71.54, "deceleration": 69.31, "rotation_down": 29.06, "downward_expansion": 11.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.453333, 15.311273, 15.266048, 14.782226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.42, "trend_reference": 14.262, "distance_from_trend": 0.151311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.287468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.55632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.251524, "excess_performance": 0.131103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025563, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.25, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51100, "relative_activity": 2.712314, "balance": 2.25, "dry_up": 1.843153, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0442, "annualized_volatility": 0.313116, "from_high_reference": -0.010247, "from_low_reference": 0.440351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.262, "fair_value_reference": 11.287468, "structural_low": 11.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000672, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006434, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088957, "worst_return": -0.157169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.103028, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.053023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17294, "worst_return": -0.128378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.21432, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237132, "worst_return": 0.053378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.450213, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.254872, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.638932, "worst_return": 0.261494, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055924, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213389, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026943, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084544, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.33, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 8555.0, "trend": 6.189333, "fair_value": 6.420444, "relative_strength": 10.16849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.226624, "energy": 29.068924, "activity_lines": 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"typical_volume": 16245.0, "trend": 14.103167, "fair_value": 10.965481, "relative_strength": -5.631104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.969345, "energy": 34.942247, "activity_lines": [ 15.303333, 15.486182, 14.714571, 14.342538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.14, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 15535.0, "trend": 14.1145, "fair_value": 11.019904, "relative_strength": -3.312499, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.40341, "energy": 27.34914, "activity_lines": [ 15.164667, 15.436364, 14.820786, 14.40943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.55, "volume": 9800, "typical_volume": 15305.0, "trend": 14.150167, "fair_value": 11.074071, "relative_strength": -0.733614, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.712308, "energy": 30.201988, "activity_lines": [ 15.259333, 15.445818, 14.954905, 14.502043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.9, "volume": 26000, "typical_volume": 15725.0, "trend": 14.167167, "fair_value": 11.124583, "relative_strength": -4.565529, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.239454, "energy": 25.946926, "activity_lines": [ 15.14, 15.321273, 15.014262, 14.550419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.45, "volume": 22900, "typical_volume": 16160.0, "trend": 14.1645, "fair_value": 11.171378, "relative_strength": -7.452998, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.104917, "energy": 19.648347, "activity_lines": [ 14.898, 15.130909, 15.019476, 14.568667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.25, "volume": 38900, "typical_volume": 17330.0, "trend": 14.195333, "fair_value": 11.224776, "relative_strength": -1.756603, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.958202, "energy": 19.3448, "activity_lines": [ 14.999333, 15.108909, 15.0935, 14.638699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.42, "volume": 51100, "typical_volume": 18840.0, "trend": 14.262, "fair_value": 11.287468, "relative_strength": 2.55632, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.143462, "energy": 41.183954, "activity_lines": [ 15.453333, 15.311273, 15.266048, 14.782226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }