{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50c3338b-617a-4b7b-b3a5-94e43ec3f319", "symbol": "SBMO", "name": "SBM Offshore N.V.", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.343, "architecture_energy": 41.22, "architecture_maturity": 15.685, "architecture_confidence": 84.974, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.13, "rotation_up": 61.22, "upward_expansion": 80.22, "deceleration": 58.95, "rotation_down": 16.56, "downward_expansion": 4.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.645333, 35.4195, 34.290831, 34.113314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.82, "trend_reference": 34.069137, "distance_from_trend": 0.051391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.810187, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.721272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.910208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011593, "excess_performance": -0.131069, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051391, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.721272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082775, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044144, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.804551, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1861722, "relative_activity": 1.887377, "balance": 1.804551, "dry_up": 1.999354, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051186, "annualized_volatility": 0.296781, "from_high_reference": -0.042246, "from_low_reference": 0.751872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.069137, "fair_value_reference": 20.810187, "structural_low": 30.120001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009495, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.004068, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.179655, "worst_return": -0.163087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.071174, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.059186, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.242594, "worst_return": -0.115413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.12658, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.078398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.539609, "worst_return": -0.128561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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33.586726 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 36.599998, "volume": 2354283, "typical_volume": 1062345.05, "trend": 33.68178, "fair_value": 20.332037, "relative_strength": 13.774405, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.511568, "energy": 69.938489, "activity_lines": [ 35.637333, 34.790266, 33.736919, 33.788111 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 36.0, "volume": 1723369, "typical_volume": 998576.0, "trend": 33.811138, "fair_value": 20.492167, "relative_strength": 9.542204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.251083, "energy": 71.988293, "activity_lines": [ 35.890666, 35.161795, 33.970191, 33.937674 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 34.66, "volume": 1949334, "typical_volume": 985456.55, "trend": 33.946437, "fair_value": 20.648766, "relative_strength": 4.414622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.504194, "energy": 45.910794, "activity_lines": [ 35.593333, 35.199971, 34.072511, 33.992439 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 35.82, "volume": 1861722, "typical_volume": 986407.1, "trend": 34.069137, "fair_value": 20.810187, "relative_strength": 5.910208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.343313, "energy": 41.22033, "activity_lines": [ 35.645333, 35.4195, 34.290831, 34.113314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }