{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50c3fe74-9271-46e6-909b-2c5bd6c01026", "symbol": "002387", "name": "Visionox Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.901, "architecture_energy": 71.648, "architecture_maturity": 18.703, "architecture_confidence": 81.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.99, "rotation_up": 8.66, "upward_expansion": 15.84, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 73.12, "downward_expansion": 89.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.816667, 7.299818, 7.717238, 7.903097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.09, "trend_reference": 8.185, "distance_from_trend": -0.133781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.701603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.72765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.18412, "excess_performance": -0.191519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70311120, "relative_activity": 0.791189, "balance": 1.04863, "dry_up": 1.061432, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137789, "annualized_volatility": 0.574901, "from_high_reference": -0.371454, "from_low_reference": 0.203735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.185, "fair_value_reference": 8.701603, "structural_low": 5.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.004255, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.009886, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.196639, "worst_return": -0.141498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045449, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.03949, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.453287, "worst_return": -0.282996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053631, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.050531, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.21563, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"energy": 60.667106, "activity_lines": [ 7.633333, 7.986364, 8.091238, 8.209075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.14, "volume": 67007491, "typical_volume": 86372815.95, "trend": 8.291, "fair_value": 8.72141, "relative_strength": -30.190106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.380567, "energy": 77.572893, "activity_lines": [ 7.029333, 7.619273, 7.901238, 8.064839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.93, "volume": 117934643, "typical_volume": 88326117.95, "trend": 8.236, "fair_value": 8.709615, "relative_strength": -19.242369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.64187, "energy": 71.827425, "activity_lines": [ 6.832667, 7.429455, 7.797857, 7.977032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.09, "volume": 70311120, "typical_volume": 88867678.25, "trend": 8.185, "fair_value": 8.701603, "relative_strength": -20.72765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.9011, "energy": 71.648174, "activity_lines": [ 6.816667, 7.299818, 7.717238, 7.903097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }