{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50c47b64-456d-41db-9848-fc76b78c5f41", "symbol": "HARN", "name": "Harn Engineering Solutions Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.292, "architecture_energy": 46.671, "architecture_maturity": 68.671, "architecture_confidence": 66.903, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.18, "rotation_up": 51.17, "upward_expansion": 80.25, "deceleration": 66.12, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 6.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.078667, 2.070909, 2.040801, 2.005467 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.08, "trend_reference": 1.957372, "distance_from_trend": 0.062649, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.89425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09806, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.971697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127551, "excess_performance": -0.064774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062649, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050315, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.583885, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 873400, "relative_activity": 0.623668, "balance": 14.583885, "dry_up": 1.036293, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027737, "annualized_volatility": 0.093643, "from_high_reference": -0.063063, "from_low_reference": 0.163158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.957372, "fair_value_reference": 1.89425, "structural_low": 1.825882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.009202, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.006972, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.05102, "worst_return": -0.078125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.01368, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.094375, "worst_return": -0.070312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040359, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.091516, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.081817, "worst_return": -0.067308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.017989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.1, "volume": 3000700, "typical_volume": 1375190.0, "trend": 1.932941, "fair_value": 1.888281, "relative_strength": -7.44737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.64296, "energy": 56.442476, "activity_lines": [ 2.072, 2.062182, 2.015344, 1.979828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.06, "volume": 1136400, "typical_volume": 1377810.0, "trend": 1.940745, "fair_value": 1.890256, "relative_strength": -9.116953, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.371059, "energy": 48.014455, "activity_lines": [ 2.070667, 2.064364, 2.023288, 1.988025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 794500, "typical_volume": 1386215.0, "trend": 1.948902, "fair_value": 1.892253, "relative_strength": -6.874094, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.78955, "energy": 48.172098, "activity_lines": [ 2.076, 2.068364, 2.032471, 1.997009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.08, "volume": 873400, "typical_volume": 1400425.0, "trend": 1.957372, "fair_value": 1.89425, "relative_strength": -5.971697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.292123, "energy": 46.67136, "activity_lines": [ 2.078667, 2.070909, 2.040801, 2.005467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }