{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50cdfd8a-dc73-432d-87fb-d9e86c9f2d82", "symbol": "LSPD", "name": "Lightspeed Commerce Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.407, "architecture_energy": 33.39, "architecture_maturity": 31.008, "architecture_confidence": 44.161, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 45.25, "upward_expansion": 70.48, "deceleration": 67.54, "rotation_down": 21.86, "downward_expansion": 8.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.340667, 14.304182, 13.772667, 13.454753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.59, "trend_reference": 13.342667, "distance_from_trend": 0.093485, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.829679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181701, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.610158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.15336, "excess_performance": 0.032938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093485, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058187, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181701, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086344, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095496, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.063268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3173300, "relative_activity": 1.217085, "balance": 1.063268, "dry_up": 1.319346, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083223, "annualized_volatility": 0.394535, "from_high_reference": -0.242078, "from_low_reference": 0.350926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.342667, "fair_value_reference": 17.829679, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.030474, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.218572, "worst_return": -0.097548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106633, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003099, "worst_return": -0.152431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.159915, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.365433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112314, "worst_return": -0.424081, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.224609, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.401929, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.161479, "worst_return": -0.287738, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192488, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 15.02, "volume": 329500, "typical_volume": 2664605.0, "trend": 13.718333, "fair_value": 18.103718, "relative_strength": -11.220011, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.656254, "energy": 54.154851, "activity_lines": [ 14.161333, 13.594182, 13.130667, 13.197828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.59, "volume": 2507600, "typical_volume": 2648705.0, "trend": 13.647667, "fair_value": 18.046603, "relative_strength": -13.320834, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.262065, "energy": 57.959002, "activity_lines": [ 14.422667, 13.836909, 13.297143, 13.254065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.55, "volume": 2330900, "typical_volume": 2524470.0, "trend": 13.580333, "fair_value": 17.991282, "relative_strength": -12.688493, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.142897, "energy": 60.969229, "activity_lines": [ 14.554667, 14.037818, 13.451333, 13.31228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.97, "volume": 2450400, "typical_volume": 2443670.0, "trend": 13.489, "fair_value": 17.935, "relative_strength": -15.429394, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.266404, "energy": 48.118766, "activity_lines": [ 14.419333, 14.114364, 13.539619, 13.337419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.14, "volume": 5805100, "typical_volume": 2598270.0, "trend": 13.422333, "fair_value": 17.872885, "relative_strength": -13.243154, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.351825, "energy": 24.563914, "activity_lines": [ 14.295333, 14.189273, 13.639476, 13.379419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.59, "volume": 3173300, "typical_volume": 2607295.0, "trend": 13.342667, "fair_value": 17.829679, "relative_strength": -12.610158, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.406778, "energy": 33.389916, "activity_lines": [ 14.340667, 14.304182, 13.772667, 13.454753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }