{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50d1918f-8380-4dd2-8097-81c8c4df5cfb", "symbol": "UC86", "name": "UBS BBG US Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.777, "architecture_energy": 18.465, "architecture_maturity": 35.742, "architecture_confidence": 80.151, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.6, "rotation_up": 31.53, "upward_expansion": 54.98, "deceleration": 86.16, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 20.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.848333, 13.854364, 13.848143, 13.841672 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.8825, "trend_reference": 13.835599, "distance_from_trend": 0.00339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.016249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.123196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002803, "excess_performance": -0.048433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.698922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41570, "relative_activity": 2.530652, "balance": 3.698922, "dry_up": 0.766318, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003811, "annualized_volatility": 0.024015, "from_high_reference": -0.003016, "from_low_reference": 0.030259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.835599, "fair_value_reference": 13.016249, "structural_low": 13.695, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.003304, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.007311, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.016009, "worst_return": -0.010941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00986, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.004286, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.035997, "worst_return": -0.009494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023875, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.052094, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.041033, "worst_return": -0.025627, 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13.839955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.815, "volume": 3569, "typical_volume": 15620.1, "trend": 13.831266, "fair_value": 12.990679, "relative_strength": -6.705587, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.024205, "energy": 12.427843, "activity_lines": [ 13.850167, 13.853455, 13.843857, 13.839012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8225, "volume": 1995, "typical_volume": 15396.6, "trend": 13.832514, "fair_value": 13.003215, "relative_strength": -7.513551, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.074244, "energy": 13.996844, "activity_lines": [ 13.836833, 13.848727, 13.843298, 13.838447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.8825, "volume": 41570, "typical_volume": 16426.6, "trend": 13.835599, "fair_value": 13.016249, "relative_strength": -7.123196, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.776966, "energy": 18.464997, "activity_lines": [ 13.848333, 13.854364, 13.848143, 13.841672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }