{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50d2bf65-3e39-477c-ad0b-9bfa5bef6394", "symbol": "MTF-F7", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) DAX 30", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.116, "architecture_energy": 63.487, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.908, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.31, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.26, 81.996364, 2098.20381, 3621.537204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 85.15, "trend_reference": 5431.06, "distance_from_trend": -0.984322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7150.710256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.898056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990009, "excess_performance": -1.01891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.029379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.671526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338605, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30581, "relative_activity": 0.885323, "balance": 1.338605, "dry_up": 1.280788, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.490022, "annualized_volatility": 6.347439, "from_high_reference": -0.990663, "from_low_reference": 0.099987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5431.06, "fair_value_reference": 7150.710256, "structural_low": 77.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014351, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.030882, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.151731, "worst_return": -0.989691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040292, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.123233, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.312301, "worst_return": -0.990143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.110364, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.157606, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.49865, "worst_return": -0.148264, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.957849, "energy": 67.997535, "activity_lines": [ 80.843333, 495.383818, 2943.351, 4367.043677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.59, "volume": 78335, "typical_volume": 33935.05, "trend": 5719.455, "fair_value": 7190.356731, "relative_strength": -98.934325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.544098, "energy": 67.335307, "activity_lines": [ 82.146, 218.944545, 2502.025952, 3985.040753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.15, "volume": 30581, "typical_volume": 34542.2, "trend": 5431.06, "fair_value": 7150.710256, "relative_strength": -98.898056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.115512, "energy": 63.487164, "activity_lines": [ 83.26, 81.996364, 2098.20381, 3621.537204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }