{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50d32bc7-64bc-4d92-b819-a3c41e7fe8e8", "symbol": "XCS6", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.571, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.099, "architecture_energy": 20.189, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.638, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.66, "rotation_up": 43.94, "upward_expansion": 27.6, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 15.51, "downward_expansion": 50.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.0308, 15.735091, 15.798914, 15.962748 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.368, "trend_reference": 16.291267, "distance_from_trend": 0.00471, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.695167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.309665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05431, "excess_performance": -0.225202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03898, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028684, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50110, "relative_activity": 0.27044, "balance": 0.462965, "dry_up": 0.885819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028733, "annualized_volatility": 0.171317, "from_high_reference": -0.134335, "from_low_reference": 0.123404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.291267, "fair_value_reference": 14.695167, "structural_low": 14.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.020582, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.038195, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.135904, "worst_return": -0.095855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029572, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.089271, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.20945, "worst_return": -0.100487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011922, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.185587, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.080387, "worst_return": -0.160368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": 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209367.35, "trend": 16.386533, "fair_value": 14.656731, "relative_strength": -18.249691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.846122, "energy": 34.059377, "activity_lines": [ 15.501867, 15.466655, 15.730695, 15.973867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.184, "volume": 148593, "typical_volume": 197539.95, "trend": 16.3378, "fair_value": 14.673167, "relative_strength": -16.207151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.396947, "energy": 20.798964, "activity_lines": [ 15.780533, 15.586509, 15.754476, 15.9608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.368, "volume": 50110, "typical_volume": 185290.4, "trend": 16.291267, "fair_value": 14.695167, "relative_strength": -17.309665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.098602, "energy": 20.189067, "activity_lines": [ 16.0308, 15.735091, 15.798914, 15.962748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }