{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50d65d0e-e84d-4ccc-a3f3-a924cac46cc5", "symbol": "002827", "name": "Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.251, "architecture_energy": 55.589, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.73, "rotation_up": 71.94, "upward_expansion": 43.52, "deceleration": 47.62, "rotation_down": 22.0, "downward_expansion": 27.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.929333, 31.517697, 30.122686, 30.794595 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 54.16, "trend_reference": 32.203075, "distance_from_trend": 0.681827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.654785, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.031905, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 47.620937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.534712, "excess_performance": 0.527313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.681827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073406, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.031905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.719237, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.476209, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.746079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.534712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.923201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152512704, "relative_activity": 6.970191, "balance": 1.923201, "dry_up": 2.714583, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07739, "annualized_volatility": 0.885058, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 1.43964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.203075, "fair_value_reference": 26.654785, "structural_low": 22.200001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034105, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.057506, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.08549, "worst_return": -0.0876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.153148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.631588, "worst_return": -0.187617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.160081, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.078265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.696281, "worst_return": -0.04409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 21129769, "typical_volume": 14038751.3, "trend": 31.783408, "fair_value": 26.233759, "relative_strength": -33.449703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.696532, "energy": 64.082201, "activity_lines": [ 24.117333, 24.865179, 27.216327, 29.16097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.599998, "volume": 39412377, "typical_volume": 15090842.8, "trend": 31.655408, "fair_value": 26.381201, "relative_strength": -0.936305, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.003613, "energy": 14.89452, "activity_lines": [ 27.618666, 26.451977, 27.735268, 29.342686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.16, "volume": 152512704, "typical_volume": 21880708.0, "trend": 32.203075, "fair_value": 26.654785, "relative_strength": 47.620937, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.250852, "energy": 55.589472, "activity_lines": [ 36.929333, 31.517697, 30.122686, 30.794595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }