{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "50e35aae-134b-459f-8ccc-ca5056acb2c4",
    "symbol": "1B1",
    "name": "HC Surgical Specialists Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -29.981,
    "architecture_energy": 35.75,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.333,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.345,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.16,
        "rotation_up": 26.38,
        "upward_expansion": 29.46,
        "deceleration": 42.65,
        "rotation_down": 54.91,
        "downward_expansion": 42.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.363,
        0.369727,
        0.373381,
        0.372125
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.345,
    "trend_reference": 0.36964,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.06666,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.292378,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17998,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -17.832022,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.043314,
    "excess_performance": -0.198149,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06666,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029545,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.17998,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.114662,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.17832,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.208816,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043314,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.359023,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 238400,
      "relative_activity": 2.781148,
      "balance": 0.359023,
      "dry_up": 3.213077,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049052,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.301102,
      "from_high_reference": -0.1375,
      "from_low_reference": 0.126597
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.36964,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.292378,
      "structural_low": 0.33,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.013887,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018801,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.098591,
        "worst_return": -0.058253,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.005058,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036166,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.277778,
        "worst_return": -0.196295,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.070423,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003371,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.302553,
        "worst_return": -0.165048,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.218024,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.181054,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.493664,
        "worst_return": -0.224798,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.153243,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018519,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.079999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.046421,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035712,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018517,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.212722,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.014285,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.072464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.067568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014706,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.30876,
        "volume": 65200,
        "typical_volume": 23330.0,
        "trend": 0.331205,
        "fair_value": 0.343682,
        "relative_strength": -2.896459,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.764489,
        "energy": 26.123021,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.325115,
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          0.336414,
          0.333378
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
        "close": 0.31299,
        "volume": 90300,
        "typical_volume": 27605.0,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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          0.332203
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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        "typical_volume": 29045.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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        "typical_volume": 29635.0,
        "trend": 0.329486,
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        "relative_strength": -1.883361,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.56084,
        "energy": 52.749237,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
        "close": 0.30876,
        "volume": 202900,
        "typical_volume": 39780.0,
        "trend": 0.328499,
        "fair_value": 0.346131,
        "relative_strength": -5.158913,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.783763,
        "energy": 55.852909,
        "activity_lines": [
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          0.327491,
          0.328098
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 0.296072,
        "volume": 12900,
        "typical_volume": 40350.0,
        "trend": 0.327089,
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        "relative_strength": -6.692912,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-29",
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2023-10-20",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-27",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-11-03",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2023-11-24",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-08",
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        "date": "2023-12-15",
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        "date": "2024-01-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-12",
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        "volume": 222500,
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        "relative_strength": 4.984273,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.690231,
        "energy": 82.470767,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 0.37,
        "volume": 17900,
        "typical_volume": 77665.0,
        "trend": 0.351002,
        "fair_value": 0.289262,
        "relative_strength": 2.201475,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 89635.0,
        "trend": 0.352205,
        "fair_value": 0.289475,
        "relative_strength": 4.874163,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 92155.0,
        "trend": 0.353398,
        "fair_value": 0.289655,
        "relative_strength": 3.049607,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 91875.0,
        "trend": 0.355405,
        "fair_value": 0.290041,
        "relative_strength": 5.507083,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 87680.0,
        "trend": 0.357412,
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        "relative_strength": 3.684247,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 0.38,
        "volume": 32000,
        "typical_volume": 84970.0,
        "trend": 0.359033,
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        "relative_strength": 1.462817,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 73865.0,
        "trend": 0.359829,
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        "relative_strength": -2.846772,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 66925.0,
        "trend": 0.360616,
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        "relative_strength": -5.043728,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 63340.0,
        "trend": 0.362237,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 59360.0,
        "trend": 0.363691,
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        "relative_strength": -2.874118,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.916585,
        "energy": 21.05471,
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          0.371333,
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          0.370117
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 0.375,
        "volume": 1200,
        "typical_volume": 58505.0,
        "trend": 0.365145,
        "fair_value": 0.291273,
        "relative_strength": -3.757508,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 28.857082,
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        "activity_lines": [
          0.372667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 7800,
        "typical_volume": 58850.0,
        "trend": 0.366607,
        "fair_value": 0.291599,
        "relative_strength": -5.229852,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.501749,
        "energy": 32.679294,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.377667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.395,
        "volume": 34600,
        "typical_volume": 50950.0,
        "trend": 0.368403,
        "fair_value": 0.291908,
        "relative_strength": -3.525993,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.999542,
        "energy": 56.255357,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.384667,
          0.379364,
          0.37781,
          0.37396
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.395,
        "volume": 49300,
        "typical_volume": 50955.0,
        "trend": 0.370199,
        "fair_value": 0.292216,
        "relative_strength": -4.886305,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.960862,
        "energy": 67.606879,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.389,
          0.382273,
          0.37981,
          0.375676
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.34,
        "volume": 779400,
        "typical_volume": 87625.0,
        "trend": 0.369836,
        "fair_value": 0.292173,
        "relative_strength": -18.336866,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -3.327643,
        "energy": 5.521273,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.374,
          0.375091,
          0.376333,
          0.373727
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.345,
        "volume": 238400,
        "typical_volume": 85720.0,
        "trend": 0.36964,
        "fair_value": 0.292378,
        "relative_strength": -17.832022,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.981312,
        "energy": 35.750098,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.363,
          0.369727,
          0.373381,
          0.372125
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}