{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50eb2ebe-2787-4ad3-8d5c-e552d820aa0d", "symbol": "FIBK", "name": "First Interstate BancSystem Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.095, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.667, "architecture_energy": 31.363, "architecture_maturity": 50.615, "architecture_confidence": 44.316, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.07, "rotation_up": 40.25, "upward_expansion": 65.43, "deceleration": 64.52, "rotation_down": 24.48, "downward_expansion": 15.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.777404, 37.869515, 36.964997, 36.247782 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.53, "trend_reference": 35.690088, "distance_from_trend": 0.051552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.3655, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.340504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008212, "excess_performance": -0.195666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051552, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015477, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800844, "relative_activity": 1.007252, "balance": 0.740888, "dry_up": 1.155455, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047766, "annualized_volatility": 0.205662, "from_high_reference": -0.064302, "from_low_reference": 0.364067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.690088, "fair_value_reference": 28.3655, "structural_low": 31.207028, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.004816, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.003052, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.107444, "worst_return": -0.125207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016555, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.083472, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.07407, "worst_return": -0.155696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001331, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055459, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.08653, "worst_return": -0.093158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.092214, "energy": 75.799356, "activity_lines": [ 38.164511, 37.262195, 36.019898, 35.636033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.706252, "volume": 7016014, "typical_volume": 5801104.8, "trend": 35.455261, "fair_value": 28.108676, "relative_strength": 4.2123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.824376, "energy": 76.027782, "activity_lines": [ 38.451471, 37.646866, 36.36779, 35.854051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.659069, "volume": 6483401, "typical_volume": 5840030.75, "trend": 35.543109, "fair_value": 28.197389, "relative_strength": 2.843822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.516034, "energy": 54.873308, "activity_lines": [ 38.282954, 37.790822, 36.594267, 35.996232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.560278, "volume": 7317181, "typical_volume": 5901044.2, "trend": 35.648133, "fair_value": 28.280006, "relative_strength": 1.796497, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.111861, "energy": 41.565486, "activity_lines": [ 37.999568, 37.851742, 36.792664, 36.126372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.53, "volume": 5800844, "typical_volume": 5759080.3, "trend": 35.690088, "fair_value": 28.3655, "relative_strength": -3.340504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.666531, "energy": 31.363376, "activity_lines": [ 37.777404, 37.869515, 36.964997, 36.247782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }