{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50f28472-d5a5-4045-bb78-4411eda2bcd9", "symbol": "ALLE", "name": "Allegion PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.81, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.276, "architecture_energy": 72.23, "architecture_maturity": 13.983, "architecture_confidence": 76.271, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.46, "rotation_up": 73.73, "upward_expansion": 54.61, "deceleration": 21.17, "rotation_down": 14.06, "downward_expansion": 29.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.366, 148.586528, 142.137347, 142.91574 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 168.94, "trend_reference": 146.932178, "distance_from_trend": 0.149782, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 135.20482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.317964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052807, "excess_performance": -0.178432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.836053, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5812353, "relative_activity": 1.056526, "balance": 3.836053, "dry_up": 1.271651, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054997, "annualized_volatility": 0.320612, "from_high_reference": -0.070084, "from_low_reference": 0.35708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.932178, "fair_value_reference": 135.20482, "structural_low": 124.487896, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01474, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040041, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.083896, "worst_return": -0.187187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050096, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152157, "worst_return": -0.297351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.024273, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090642, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.114572, "worst_return": -0.071201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-21.260675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.974404, "energy": 22.558089, "activity_lines": [ 137.67741, 134.995929, 136.118212, 141.053656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 137.24, "volume": 5308277, "typical_volume": 5040756.15, "trend": 146.961744, "fair_value": 134.204016, "relative_strength": -19.275711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.484781, "energy": 21.332753, "activity_lines": [ 137.83, 135.73183, 135.948534, 140.380202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.36, "volume": 9755389, "typical_volume": 5284545.15, "trend": 146.756157, "fair_value": 134.482083, "relative_strength": -8.868755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.21447, "energy": 22.291859, "activity_lines": [ 143.101333, 139.33645, 137.421926, 140.792993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.4, "volume": 7107333, "typical_volume": 5411271.6, "trend": 146.681268, "fair_value": 134.804932, "relative_strength": -7.057531, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.018517, "energy": 43.419467, "activity_lines": [ 148.4, 143.162438, 139.260221, 141.479693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 168.94, "volume": 5812353, "typical_volume": 5501380.55, "trend": 146.932178, "fair_value": 135.20482, "relative_strength": -3.317964, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.275549, "energy": 72.229879, "activity_lines": [ 156.366, 148.586528, 142.137347, 142.91574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }